The starting price for a new foreign car in Russia is expected to push higher, with 2024 forecasts placing the bottom end near 3 to 3.2 million rubles, up from about 2.8 million. This projection comes from industry insight shared by auto expert Roman Soldatov and reported by Ivestia.
Prices in the car market are not determined by a single factor. A key driver is the ruble’s exchange rate against major currencies, especially the dollar. When the dollar strengthens, vehicle prices rise, a trend most visible with parallel imports. A second major factor is the government’s recycling fee, which has new rates that can add roughly 300 thousand rubles or more to the cost of a car. A third element is the post-holiday pricing effect: after New Year discounts, dealers often need to recoup those reductions, which tends to push prices upward once holiday promotions end, according to Soldatov.
Earlier, the Ministry of Industry and Trade outlined an optimistic view for the Russian auto market. It projected a return to growth and suggested sales could reach about 1.3 million units in 2024. The department also indicated that by 2026 the market would align with the average annual sales level seen from 2015 to 2021. Projections show a steady increase of around 1 percent per year starting in 2027. If these trends hold, the market could approach 1.8 million vehicles annually by 2030 and reach approximately 1.9 million units per year by 2035.
Another notable development in 2023 was a shift in global automotive export dynamics. China emerged as the world’s leading automobile exporter, propelled by stronger deliveries to Russia and to Mexico. In the first eleven months of 2023, China supplied about 730 thousand vehicles to Russia, a figure that represents roughly seven times the level recorded in the same period of 2022. This surge reflected a broader realignment in global supply chains and trade patterns within the automobile sector. (Source attribution: Ivestia)
Reports indicate that Russians now have the purchasing power to consider new-car purchases, a sign of renewed consumer activity in the domestic market. While macroeconomic conditions and policy measures will continue to shape pricing and availability, the trajectory suggests a cautious but hopeful path for vehicle sales in the near term. (Source attribution: Ivestia)