Fuel retailers across Russia have begun to face losses on sales, prompting shifts in pricing strategies and loyalty programs. The negative turn in margins has been reported by Petromarket, a research group cited by Vedomosti. At the start of September, the average margin on AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline slipped by 3 rubles per liter, while diesel fell by 2 rubles per liter. Petromarket notes that gasoline trading has been unprofitable since mid-June, with diesel following suit since mid-August.
With margins in the red for fuel sales, several large fuel networks have started removing incentive promotions and consumer discounts. Independent gas stations are also recalibrating or scaling back customer loyalty schemes as they navigate tighter profitability conditions.
In the autumn period, Tatiana Skryl, an associate professor at the Russian University of Economics named after G.V. Plekhanov, suggested that gasoline prices at stations could top out around 62.98 rubles per liter, while diesel may hold near 64.61 rubles per liter. Skryl indicated that government depreciation payments to oil companies are aimed at halting price increases, which in turn limits the ability to raise raw material costs for refining and distribution. This context helps explain why the market could see constrained price movements despite shifts in supply and demand dynamics.
Earlier reports highlighted a surge in the AI-95 gasoline price in the European part of Russia, with the price per ton climbing above 76 thousand rubles for the first time, marking a new historical peak based on today’s trading results. The development underscores the broader tension between fuel costs, wholesale pricing, and retail consumer pricing in the current market environment.
Market observers emphasize that as margins compress, retailers must balance the need to attract customers with the pressure to maintain viability. The evolving landscape includes rethinking promotional tactics, moderating discounts, and refining loyalty programs to preserve traffic while protecting bottom lines. Industry participants point to the significant role of policy measures and subsidy frameworks in shaping retail pricing strategies. Analysts contend that any policy adjustments affecting subsidies or tax treatment could further influence the pace at which prices move at the pump. In this setting, the ability of stations to absorb higher wholesale costs without passing them fully to consumers remains a key uncertainty for the near term.
Retail fuel dynamics are also affected by regional variations in demand, seasonal factors, and exchange rate movements that influence import costs and refinery margins. Observers expect continued volatility in both wholesale and retail prices as market players respond to evolving regulatory signals and the ongoing balance between supply resilience and consumer affordability. The situation illustrates how shifts in one corner of the supply chain can ripple through pricing, promotions, and customer engagement across the gas station network.
Overall, the current pricing environment suggests a cautious approach for station operators. Margins are unlikely to rebound quickly without supportive policy actions or a notable improvement in wholesale cost structures. Operators are advised to monitor wholesale price trends, domestic crude cost dynamics, and policy developments that could alter the trajectory of fuel pricing in the months ahead. The industry outlook remains sensitive to external factors such as international energy markets, domestic production volumes, and government interventions aimed at stabilizing consumer prices.