Denis Manturov, who heads the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, has indicated that the country’s car market could see higher sales next year. Industry observers note that production at key factories is being adjusted and gradually expanded. Leading players named include AvtoVAZ, the revived Moskvich, and Haval, all of whom are increasing output in response to shifting market conditions. When asked whether the sales trajectory in the auto sector might surpass 2022 levels, Manturov suggested early indicators point to improvements, particularly as major plants undergo strategic adjustments.
The ministry also reaffirmed its earlier forecast for the current year, projecting a market decline of about 55 percent to roughly 750 thousand vehicles. In practice, performance has fallen short of that target as the year progressed, with observers noting a pronounced downturn in demand and production during the initial months. The national market faced a difficult stretch as manufacturers recalibrated output and rebuilt inventories in response to fluctuating demand and external pressures.
By the close of the eleven-month period, sales in Russia totaled fewer than 549 thousand cars, marking a decline of nearly 61 percent from the same period a year earlier, according to the Automobile Manufacturers Committee of the Association of European Businesses in Russia. November alone saw sales of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles around 46.4 thousand, roughly six-tenths lower than November of the prior year. The downturn underscored persistent headwinds facing the sector, including weakened consumer demand, financing constraints, and ongoing adjustments across the supply chain.
Looking ahead, the market tightened toward year-end, with ROAD reporting that fourteen brands remained active in the Russian car market. The evolving landscape reflects ongoing consolidation and strategic realignments among automakers as they push for efficient production, competitive pricing, and channel optimization to navigate a volatile environment while seeking to preserve long-term market presence.
In this broader context, industry watchers emphasize how macroeconomic factors, sanctions-related shifts, and currency dynamics influence purchasing power and access to financing. They also highlight the resilience of traditional players alongside newer entrants that are testing different distribution models and after-sales strategies. The continued focus on supply chain resilience, localized production, and digital sales channels is expected to shape the market through the coming quarters, even as external uncertainties persist.
Experts suggest that the near-term outlook will hinge on the balance between inventory adjustments and consumer willingness to buy. As automakers streamline product lines and price bands, shoppers may see more model variety and better financing options. The sector’s evolution will likely reflect a mix of recovery signals and cautious optimism, with the goal of restoring volumes while maintaining sustainable operations in a volatile global context.