Russian Auto Market Forecasts for Q3 2023 and Brand Mix

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In the Russian car market, forecasts from major dealers point to a notable uptick in demand for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles during the third quarter of 2023. Industry insiders anticipate growth in the 15 to 18 percent range compared with the same period last year, a projection reported by ROAD through RIA Novosti. This snapshot reflects a bullish sentiment across the sector as retailers and manufacturers align on expectations for the upcoming quarter. (Source: ROAD profile, via RIA Novosti.)

Specifically, the forecast calls for about 298,000 new vehicles to be sold in July through September, indicating a substantial quarterly gain for the market. The association behind the forecast emphasizes that the momentum is broad-based, shaped by the performance of several key segments rather than a single catalyst. (Source: ROAD profile, via RIA Novosti.)

Dealer estimates break the anticipated sales into regional and brand contributions. Russian brands are expected to account for around 123,000 units in the third quarter, while Chinese brands are projected to approach 130,000 units. The remaining roughly 45,000 vehicles are forecast to come from brands that have exited the domestic market, yet continue to reach consumers through parallel imports. This distribution underscores the dynamic mix in supply channels and the ongoing role of import avenues that bypass traditional dealership networks. (Source: ROAD profile, via RIA Novosti.)

Earlier reporting notes that the market outlook is tempered by regulatory and administrative developments, such as the ongoing delays in issuing electronic vehicle passports (EPTS) for newly imported cars. This regulatory lag has been highlighted by the YOL as a concern and was raised with Denis Manturov, head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, to seek clarity and faster processing timelines. Market observers in Canada and the United States may find parallels in how regulatory timelines can influence vehicle availability and consumer confidence in new imports. (Source: ROAD profile, via RIA Novosti.)

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