In 2024, Russia is not expected to see stability or a decline in car prices. The trajectory of price changes will be shaped by inflationary pressures in the economy and by government actions aimed at supporting the automotive sector and the broader car market in terms of promotion, according to Viktor Pushkarev, Deputy Head of the Analytics Department at Autostat.
Pushkarev notes that automakers are unlikely to cap prices tightly at dealerships. Instead, manufacturers are anticipated to continue covering production and logistics costs to secure the highest possible margins.
“To roughly gauge price dynamics, analysts can look at how the weighted average price of a car correlates with the official annual inflation rate. For instance, if inflation runs 12 percent and prices rise 29 percent in 2022, projections for 2023 were around 7.5 percent inflation and a 21 percent price increase. If the 2024 budget envisions a minimum inflation path of 4.5 percent, then price growth could be in the neighborhood of 10 to 12 percent,” Pushkarev explained.
Alexander Shaprinsky, development director of the Pragmatika dealership network, argues that price stabilization would require several conditions: a stable ruble exchange rate, affordable lending rates of at least 25 percent, and a reasonable vehicle recycling fee.
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