In 2024, the resale of vehicles shipped from Japan to Russia is projected to drop by about 30 percent. This forecast comes from Kuniya Asamoto, who works with the Europe, Russia and CIS division of the Japan External Trade Promotion Organization (JETRO). The observation was shared during a briefing with TASS. The forecast reflects the continuing influence of sanctions and the way they shape trade flows between Japan and Russia. The analyst notes that the sanctions landscape creates a persistent drag on the volume of Japanese automobiles reaching Russia, shaping expectations for the upcoming year and beyond.
According to Asamoto, the sanctions regime will continue to affect shipments. He estimates that the total number of Japanese cars delivered to Russia in 2024 will be roughly 30 percent lower than the levels seen in the previous year. This projection is grounded in a careful assessment of existing restrictions, the pace of their implementation, and the broader geopolitical environment that governs cross‑border trade in automobiles. The consultant emphasized that policy measures are likely to keep exerting downward pressure on supply, even as car buyers and sellers adapt to the new realities.
Data from late 2023 illustrate the abrupt shifts faced by the market. August 2023 saw a major contraction in imports, with the volume of Japanese automobile shipments to Russia dropping by about 42.5 percent compared with the previous year. September and October followed with declines of 51.8 percent and 46.8 percent, respectively. These declines highlight how quickly the market responded to the tightening sanctions and related regulatory changes. The analyst underscored that the sanctions put in place for 2024 are expected to maintain this downward trajectory, reinforcing a slower pace of supply from Japan to Russia as manufacturers and distributors reassess their strategies and options.
Context matters for understanding the broader market dynamics. On August 9, 2023, Japan implemented a ban on exporting cars and hybrid vehicles with engines larger than 1.9 liters to Russia. The restriction, introduced as part of the latest round of sanctions announced on July 28, targets both new and used vehicles, along with associated items such as truck tires and certain car components. A separate note indicates that the market for new Japanese cars to Russia effectively paused in 2022. The combination of these measures has reshaped the import channel and created space for other sources to fill part of the demand in Russia’s automotive sector.
Industry observers expect the resulting market adjustments to push prices upward in the Russian market for imported vehicles. With Japanese models constrained, buyers and dealers may increasingly consider alternatives from other manufacturers. The shift could influence pricing dynamics, availability, and model diversity on the showroom floors. The transition timeline remains fluid, but the trend point is clear: sanctions are reshaping supply chains and steering consumer choices in real time, as traders navigate a landscape marked by policy uncertainty and evolving regulations. Observers note that the ongoing reshaping of supplier networks may open opportunities for new partnerships or supply routes, even as the overall volume of imports remains constrained. A related development concerns the Avtotor facility, which has publicly indicated plans to broaden its collaboration with additional automobile brands in 2024, signaling a shift toward diversification in the domestic market and a potential response to the reduced flow of Japanese vehicles.