Outlook for Russian Auto Market in 2023 Q2: Dealer Confidence and Vehicle Mix

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In the second quarter of 2023, automobile dealers anticipated growth in both new passenger car sales and light commercial vehicle sales, compared with the same period a year earlier. Observers note this positive outlook through the lens of market signals and production plans across major brands, including a notable push from Chinese automakers and the domestic involvement of AvtoVAZ with the Vesta model entering broader mass-market allocation. The period’s sentiment centers on restoring momentum after a downturn and reshaping the competitive landscape with a wider variety of affordable options on the road.

Industry experts project a partial rebound from the prior year, driven by renewed demand and competitive pricing. A leading analyst highlighted that the prior year had been unusually challenging for dealers, but the current year shows potential for a meaningful uptick. The forecast hinges on cost-efficient models reaching a broad audience, combined with strategic introductions from major producers that expand accessibility for everyday buyers. The prospect of a 10 percent increase over the previous year’s performance underlines the expectation that market conditions are improving, particularly as new introductions reach the market and manufacturing ramps up to meet demand.

Historical data shows that in the second quarter of 2022, Russia sold 84.7 thousand cars and light commercial vehicles. For the second quarter of 2023, analysts estimate the figure could rise to about 93 thousand vehicles, signaling a recovery in consumer confidence and dealer activity. While regional dynamics can influence results, the broader trend points to steadier sales rhythms as supply chains stabilize and financing options become more accessible for buyers in multiple segments.

In related developments, there is anticipation around the rollout of new hybrid and electrified models under consideration for late June launches. Automakers plan to offer these vehicles in several trim levels, with official pricing to be announced closer to the market entry date. The introduction of hybrid crossovers is expected to diversify the product lineup, appealing to buyers seeking efficiency, modern technology, and practicality in daily commuting. Dealers and manufacturers alike are watching closely how such offerings will perform in terms of overall ownership costs, residual values, and service networks over the coming quarters.

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