Analysis of OSAGO risk factors and policy trends
According to the Bank of Russia, which oversees the compulsory motor insurance market, private cars account for a dominant 85.6 percent share of insured vehicles. In addition, taxi drivers are markedly more prone to involvement in accidents, with a risk that is 7.7 times higher than that of regular car drivers. This snapshot highlights a persistent safety disparity that insurers and regulators monitor closely, informing pricing, risk assessment, and policy design within the OSAGO framework.
The data also show a meaningful difference in accident rates based on policy structure. Policies that cover multiple drivers exhibit an accident rate that is 87 percent higher than contracts that limit the number of drivers. Yet, the portion of such multi-driver policies continues to shrink over time, suggesting a shift toward more restrictive or selective coverage arrangements that may reflect risk management strategies and evolving market preferences among vehicle owners and fleets alike.
Age remains a significant predictor of crash risk. Drivers under 25 are 2.1 times more likely to be involved in crashes than the market average. In contrast, drivers aged 25 to 40 are 2 percent less likely to be involved than the market average, and those over 40 are, on average, 35 percent less likely. This gradient aligns with broader safety research and has important implications for underwriting, premium differentiation, and targeted safety campaigns aimed at younger drivers.
In practice, car owners who are seasonal residents and who sign contracts with a limited useful life for their vehicles often secure insurance agreements in the spring months of April and May. This tendency reflects seasonal usage patterns, where vehicles see varying levels of mileage and exposure to risk across the year, influencing insurer pricing and contract terms during that window.
All of these observations stem from data maintained in the PCA’s computerized compulsory insurance information system, covering insurance contracts concluded from January 1, 2018, through September 30, 2021. The comprehensive dataset provides a longitudinal view of risk, policy composition, and driver demographics, enabling regulators and market participants to evaluate trends, calibrate risk models, and anticipate future shifts in the OSAGO market structure.