The proposal to sell factories left vacant by foreign automakers to Chinese brands emerged from a deputy chairman of the State Duma, Boris Chernyshov. He suggested that, where production sites remain idle, certain operations could be handed over to Chinese names to organize car manufacturing on these sites.
According to a report citing Chernyshov, this approach would enable Russians to buy cars produced domestically, reducing reliance on imports and steering clear of inflated dealer prices for European brands. The deputy speaker later clarified that no such initiative exists within the parliamentary agenda.
Could this plan become reality?
Industry experts interviewed for the outlet noted that any move to repurpose global automakers’ plants in Russia would likely involve smaller Chinese manufacturers. Independent automotive consultant Sergey Burgazliev argued that major carmakers would not rush to set up full-scale production in Russia, given modest local demand and the comparatively low manufacturing costs in China, where production runs into millions of units.
“Leading Chinese brands are unlikely to act on their own,” Burgazliev commented. “Even if a smaller company like Haima eyes entry into Europe, it would need to acquire a factory abroad, provided sanctions allow it.”
Another line of thinking proposed by a different source is to use idle capacities to create several state-backed structures with diverse management styles, competing yet cooperating with different automakers interested in operating in Russia. A parallel exists in China, where state-owned companies like FAW, BAIC, and SAIC play a major role and jointly account for a sizable share of car production. The idea is that competition among state entities could yield affordable, reliable vehicles for consumers.
Analysts point out that the Russian market does not yet support large-scale investments from automakers. Market projections suggest around 620,000 car sales this year and possibly up to 700,000 next year. With such volumes, sustained full-time production may not be viable. Still, there is room for new producers, especially if they commit for the long term. The most acute gaps appear in fleets—from taxis to corporate and rideshare services—and private buyers remain cautious about paying current sticker prices.
Import-focused strategy
Leading industry voices argue that, given the circumstances, it may be more practical for Chinese automakers to supply car kits for local brands or to sell finished cars directly on the market. The view is that second-tier Chinese manufacturers, which have not pursued European expansion, could find opportunities in this setup, particularly if longstanding relationships with Russia are preserved. Large state-owned firms like BAIC are cited as potential partners in such a model.
Observers note that geopolitical shifts around Russia are fluid, and many Chinese firms take time to decide on strategic moves. Existing agreements with former owners often include repurchase options, which raises questions about asset custody should the situation change. In this context, experts suggest that stimulating demand could be a more effective response than chasing large capital investments at present. The emphasis shifts to aligning with Chinese automakers while prioritizing consumer access and affordability.
Since the start of the conflict, several foreign producers halted local production, including names such as Volkswagen, Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, Mazda, and Stellantis. Later developments saw Renault’s assets aligned with Russian state structures through NAMI, while the Moscow plant came under city control. Nissan’s assets followed a similar transfer. Other brands, like Mazda, shifted ownership of facilities, and some German brands paused operations. The Kaluga plant remains under the original owner, with production changes announced for others.
Industry observers note that while some factories have changed hands, the core challenge remains market size and profitability. The trajectory depends on political dynamics, sanctions, and the evolving stance of manufacturing partners. These factors shape whether new production projects can justify the investments required to scale up local manufacturing, and how long the current conditions will hold.