The National Industrial Information Agency (NAPI) has released an initial forecast outlining the trajectory of the Russian automotive market for the coming year, projecting new passenger car sales to reach about 670,000 units. The agency’s outlook centers on what production capacity and external conditions might mean for demand and supply in the near term.
NAPI estimates that AVTOVAZ will be able to fulfill a 400,000-vehicle production plan with only about seven-tenths of that target met under their base scenario, and slightly more under a more optimistic assumption. Under a more cautious view, the same plant could achieve roughly 57 percent of the plan. The takeaway is that output depends heavily on the pace of industrial and logistical recovery, along with ongoing macroeconomic developments.
Imports from Chinese brands are expected to hold a meaningful share of the market, with at least 210,000 brand-new models anticipated to be sold in Russia. In addition, a refurbished Moskvich plant is projected to contribute vehicle supply from about 35,000 units, including approximately 5,000 electric vehicles as part of its restart. Battery electric models from Evolute are forecast to reach no less than 10,000 units sold in the period.
Analysts at NAPI also assume that sanctions currently in place against the Russian Federation will remain in effect through the end of next year, a condition that will continue to shape import patterns, pricing dynamics, and the overall pace of market normalization.
Requires 7,000 tires in popular sizes
Without reliable tire supplies, public order and essential services cannot be guaranteed, and access to medical care for those in need can be compromised. In response, the organization “Behind the Wheel”, in partnership with the Popular Front, has launched a fundraising effort to purchase tires for vehicles used by the People’s Police and key operational services in the LPR and DPR. The goal is to equip ambulances, the emergency response ministries, humanitarian aid distribution fleets, and military logistics with adequate tires. Contributions can be made through the designated collection page. The initiative highlights how critical tire capacity is for ongoing public safety and humanitarian operations.
Source: NAPI