Market Shifts and Brand Performance in Russia, Autumn 2022
The market is undergoing redistribution. Popular brands are ceding ground, making way for models that were once overlooked. This shift is not about changing consumer tastes or evolving needs; rather, it reflects new constraints and signals in supply and demand. A landscape of possibilities is emerging for both buyers and sellers alike.
Both buyers and sellers face tighter opportunities. Dealers stock new vehicles with varying success, carefully forecast future deliveries, and increasingly rely on aftermarket parts and parallel imports. When new cars must be held for longer periods, prices can rise to extraordinary levels. Yet, the sale of a handful of vehicles can still drive an entire month. The narrative has already identified the kinds of buyers who purchase cars even at such prices.
Automakers and the wider supply chain have become more restrained. Parts shortages, logistics snags, and interruptions in production affect the global auto industry as a whole. Factories would happily replenish dealer inventories to the brim, but constraints persist, transforming once robust supply pipelines into narrow streams. The result is a spotlight on the 18 automakers that experienced the steepest sales declines in Russia when comparing September 2022 with September 2021, according to AEB data.
Russia’s leading brands by decline in September 2022, versus September 2021 (data from AEB)
|
Place |
Brand |
Cars sold in September 2022 |
Drop in sales |
| 1 | FIAT | 0 | -99% |
| Lexus | 13 | -99% | |
| Volvo | 10 | -99% | |
| 2 | Land Rover | 8 | -98% |
| Toyota | 199 | -98% | |
| 3 | Jaguar | 0 | -96% |
| Porsche | 9 | -96% | |
| 4 | Audi | 78 | -95% |
| 5 | Honda | 6 | -94% |
| 6 | VW Commercial | 9 | -93% |
| Suzuki | 56 | -93% | |
| Nissan | 271 | -93% | |
| 7 | S Subaru | 51 | -92% |
| Ford Commercial | 162 | -92% | |
| 8 | VW | 758 | -90% |
| Skoda | 639 | -90% | |
| 9 | Iveco | 7 | -87% |
| 10 | Peugeot | 111 | -85% |
Across the board, the market illustrates a cautious environment where demand shrinks faster than supply can be replenished. Carmakers struggle to align production with the realities of a constrained market, and dealers adjust their strategies accordingly. The data highlights a volatile period in which some brands briefly faltered more than others, underscoring the fragility of the current balance between availability and demand. As the Russian automotive sector navigates this period of adjustment, observers note the resilience of certain brands that managed to weather the headwinds, while others concede ground to rivals that adapt quickly to the new conditions. The overall pattern suggests a continued recalibration of pricing, inventory management, and sales tactics as the market stabilizes and new opportunities emerge for both manufacturers and consumers alike.