Recent developments in Russia’s car sector reveal a pronounced disruption in the supply chain that has left dealers with a noticeably thinner inventory. The analytical firm Avtostat notes that the strain affects both domestic manufacturers and the broader network of distributors, including those handling vehicles from Chinese brands. In many cases, cars that have already been prepaid by dealers sit stalled in warehouses, awaiting clearance or dispatch.
Industry voices point to a combination of factors behind the slowdown. Bashavtokom’s chief executive, Sergey Buranov, highlights a trio of contributors: a reduced pool of trucks and qualified drivers, tighter customs controls, and longer border processing times. Renat Tyukteev, who leads Avilon AG New Vehicle Sales, adds that factory availability has fallen below the usual level, complicating the ability of retailers to meet steady demand.
According to Tyukteev, a common yardstick for stability is roughly two months of stock for trading operations. Today, the benchmark sits closer to a 1.5-month level. He explains that the issue is not purely a lack of cars on hand; instead, volatile exchange rates prompt importers to delay shipments while they determine the final invoice price. Those price-setting pauses translate into a perceived scarcity for retailers and customers alike, reinforcing the sense of tight supply.
From the perspective of Avtodom Group, managing director Andrey Olkhovsky suggests a gradual normalization could unfold in the first half of the coming year. The anticipated return to more reliable deliveries hinges on carriers expanding their Chinese tractor fleet and on adjustments to the payroll framework for heavy truck drivers, enabling more consistent and timely transport of units. Dealers, meanwhile, are bracing for possible price adjustments in the near term, anticipating that costs will be reflected in the retail market as logistics constraints ease or persist.
Analysts emphasize that the current dynamics are shaping not only pricing but also the broader purchasing priorities among customers. With lead times fluctuating and order books evolving, buyers may encounter longer waits for certain models or configurations, particularly those with popular specifications. Retail networks are adapting by reconfiguring allocation priorities, pursuing alternative transport lanes, and reevaluating order cycles to manage cash flows while maintaining service levels. (attribution: Avtostat) The evolving situation underscores the crucial link between fleet capacity, border processing, and the pricing visibility that dealers and importers rely on to finalize assemble-to-order commitments.
In summary, the market is navigating a period of flux driven by logistics bottlenecks, exchange-rate dynamics, and regulatory cadence. Though the path to normalization appears visible in the medium term, the coming weeks will likely reveal how quickly ports, carriers, and manufacturers align to restore steadier supply. Industry observers continue to monitor freight capacity, driver availability, and the impact of border procedures as they shape both dealer stock levels and consumer access to new vehicles.