BloombergNEF analysts studying global auto demand project a lasting shift away from gasoline and diesel vehicles. The year 2017 saw a peak of about 86 million vehicle sales worldwide, a figure that has not been revisited in the years since. The onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 triggered a sharp drop in internal combustion engine car sales, after which the market gradually steered toward electric vehicles as a dominant growth path.
The consensus among analysts points to a steady move toward electrified models across the world’s leading markets. In particular, China has shown a pronounced trend, with demand for fuel-powered vehicles declining by roughly 28 percent over the past five years. Analogous shifts are evident across Europe, North America, and the rapidly expanding markets of Southeast Asia, signaling a global transition rather than a regional blip.
From 2026 onward, experts anticipate a pronounced downturn in ICE car sales as manufacturers accelerate electrification, charging infrastructure expands, and the green fleet grows to meet stricter emissions targets and consumer demand for cleaner transportation.
Earlier this year, a significant policy milestone emerged when the European Parliament supported a rollout of electric vehicles by 2035. Yet a crucial vote to ban petrol and diesel cars was delayed in early March as Germany advocated a more flexible moratorium approach, reflecting the continent’s careful balancing of climate goals with industrial realities and consumer readiness.
Notes: this analysis reflects ongoing industry research and market commentary on the evolution of vehicle powertrains and regulatory timelines in major economies.
Cited observations reflect data and forecasts associated with BloombergNEF and related market analyses. (BloombergNEF)