Halving the number of dealers in Russia is a hopeful scenario shared by Svetlana Vinogradova, the CEO of Rolf, in a conversation with Vedomosti. She suggested that the market could see a larger number of dealers exit or consolidate, painting a picture of a thinner but possibly more resilient network. Not everyone agrees with this upbeat view. Several experts expect a more modest decline, around 15 percent, arguing that the market dynamics, economic pressures, and supply chain disruptions will lead to a slower, more measured reduction in dealership footprints.
Oleg Shamba, who serves as deputy general manager for business development at Avilon AG, offers a different pace and emphasis. He highlights the volatility of the current environment, predicting that smaller dealers will likely shut down while larger, more entrenched networks may absorb or outlast them. His forecast focuses on resilience at the top end of the market and a shakeout among smaller players who struggle to maintain margins and inventory.
The Russian Automobile Dealers Association has voiced a more pronounced expectation: the dealership count could fall by at least one third. This projection draws attention to cascading effects that could ripple through the sector, including potential shortages of spare parts, the risk of factory shutdowns, and a higher VAT burden on the resale of used cars. The association emphasizes how these factors interact to compress dealer viability and complicate the resale market for customers and businesses alike.
A nuance in the forecast relates to what counts as an official dealer rather than the broader pool of car sellers. Some firms may choose not to renew their cooperation with manufacturers, resulting in a reduced roster of official brand representatives. Despite this change in status, many of these dealers can continue to operate and sell vehicles under their existing licenses, keeping sales volumes steady even as brand official status shifts.
Historical data from Avtostat and the Russian Auto Dealers Association provide a snapshot of the market size as of April 2022. At that time, about 3,203 dealerships were actively operating in Russia. Projections for the remainder of the year suggested that roughly half of the existing network could undergo closures or status changes, with around 1,600 dealers potentially closing or reclassifying their official affiliations by year-end. The implications extend beyond count and branding. The evolving dealer landscape affects service networks, parts availability, and customer access to brand-specific maintenance and warranties, creating a delicate balance between market consolidation and consumer choice.