Money is not important
US IT companies Cisco, Dell, HP and others have lifted restrictions on their partnerships with Russia. A related statement was posted on the website of the US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on the evening of April 7. The document relates to the operation of the Internet by American companies in the Russian Federation, that is, network logging, messaging, video conferencing, blogging, etc. discloses that it may resell and supply services, software, equipment and technologies for
“The only problem is, what kind of equipment we are talking about is not clear from the wording of the document. He says “hardware”, which can be interpreted both as components such as processors and as finished equipment.
As for concessions regarding the sale of components, I’m totally skeptical of that. But the fact that Russia will be allowed to sell finished equipment is quite, ”a source in the market of telecom equipment manufacturers tells socialbites.ca.
The OFAC decision may seem like a minor defeat for the West, given the blatant conflict between the US and the Russian Federation. However, experts believe that this event should not be perceived as such, as America pursues, in their view, obvious selfish goals.
“The motivation of the USA is very clear. States do not want to lose control over the information flows within Russian networks. If American sellers leave the market, the Chinese will completely occupy it. So all control will pass to the Chinese. And given the conflict between the USA and China, the first is to allow it. can’t,” he said.
A similar opinion is shared by Valentin Makarov, head of the Russian association of software developers “Russoft”. He believes that the easing that has taken place is mainly due to fears of the United States losing its ability to control and influence public opinion in Russia.
“Furthermore, the ability to use the tools built into this equipment to regulate traffic and content is lost,” said Makarov.
Sergey Matusevich, head of web technologies development at Artezio (a company that develops software telecommunications solutions), shares the same view. He believes the facilitation is aimed at expanding the United States’ information influence in the Russian Federation, as well as keeping channels of access to information open for the West.
Well then money
A little less often, during a meeting with socialbites.ca, experts noted that the question of the economic well-being of American companies lies behind the discussed decision of the United States. For example, Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group, says that the largest US telecom equipment vendors make billions of dollars a year in Russia. According to him, these are significant amounts that Americans would not want to give to Chinese companies represented by Huawei and ZTE.
“It’s clear that sales won’t be high when they return, but even American IT companies really need them now. Because in conditions of the upcoming global crisis and widespread hyperinflation, any income will be a plus. Politics will not be discussed in the autumn anyway. “Everyone will only care about money,” he said.
A similar view is shared by Airat Mustafin, CEO of Liberum Navitas (cloud services developer). “I wouldn’t be wrong if I said that financial gain is the top priority for these companies,” he said.
However, a source in the market for telecom equipment manufacturers strongly doubted the financial motivation of the United States. According to him, the share of Russia in the revenue of all foreign sellers is no more than 2%. At the same time, a very insignificant amount is obtained for American companies, that is, for Western companies, which occupy no more than a third of the market.
After all, experts have often pointed out that the US decision seems like a betrayal of European partners such as Nokia and Ericsson.
“One of the main reasons the United States decided to take this step is its ability to force European companies such as Nokia and Ericsson out of the Russian market and prevent Chinese Huawei from taking over everything. After all, what happened? Europeans imposed mirror sanctions, thinking that the Americans would do the same. “The Americans promised to do this, but as we have seen, the promise was not kept,” he said.
Valentin Makarov and a source in the telecoms equipment manufacturers market agreed that European players would be the hardest hit.
our move
The source of socialbites.ca believes that a 360-degree US turn threatens Russia with big problems. According to him, cellular operators and providers will be very willing to accept returning Americans, who will pose a great threat to the national security of the Russian Federation.
“Despite any restrictions imposed by the state on imports of foreign equipment, the market will figure out how to buy back American equipment. The operators themselves absolutely do not mind, because it is beneficial for them to return everything as it is. For this, plans for very conditional localization of equipment, bureaucratic mechanisms for recognizing foreign equipment as Russian, etc. It will certainly be invented.
“This is a huge risk to national security and a major blow to Russian telecom equipment manufacturers – it will be worse than before.”
However, most speakers are less pessimistic. For example, according to Sergey Matusevich of Artezio, the US bet may not work, at least not because American IT companies do not want to return to Russia for ideological reasons and reputational risks.
“Many companies voluntarily left the Russian market, and the rest are experiencing difficulties with settlements.
It will be problematic to quickly restore cooperation even in good market conditions, when the logistics of deliveries and payments are not yet interrupted.
Now it is not possible to revive the Russian market due to the easing due to economic and reputational reasons. Therefore, the relaxation will likely allow existing contracts to be enforced, and companies that cannot exit the market will not have to do so under legal pressure,” he said.
In contrast, Airat Mustafin believes that many Russian companies will basically not want to return to American products after February 24 because of the risk of losing them in the future, which they already face.
“Everyone understands today that if a supplier can leave the country due to an order from above, there can be no doubt about the reliability of the supplier.
In any case, all this has nothing to do with real import independence. The Russian communication medium that exists today is quite capable of solving the current tasks of users, in the future new services will be developed, including those for professional and commercial use.
TrueConf (a leading videoconferencing developer in the Russian Federation) added that it certainly cannot return to the government segment and critical infrastructure space, at least since American companies are prohibited from purchasing foreign solutions from April 1, 2022. .
Source: Gazeta
