Who will lead world figure skating without Russian participation?

Who will be the leader without the Russians?

The era of Russian absence from the world figure skating stage is underway, and its duration remains uncertain. The 2022 World Championship, held in March, saw the top Russian skaters unable to compete for medals across disciplines.

Japan’s Kaori Sakamoto claimed the women’s singles gold at the world championship. This result aligned with her strong performance against Russian competitors at the Olympic Games, where she earned bronze behind Kamila Valieva, a race shadowed by a doping controversy that historians still debate. Regardless, Sakamoto’s victory in Montpellier underscored a shift after Beijing’s Games, where the field was visibly different.

As a result, Sakamoto’s narrow edge at the World Championships in Montpellier came as a notable moment in a season defined by transition.

Belgian skater Luna Hendrix finished second after a late entry, overcoming an injury to race back into contention. The United States filled the next two spots with Alice Liu and a team poised for the next season. Liu, who has a triple axel and the potential to contend with the best, had announced plans to step away from competition after achieving her goals in figure skating, a decision that stunned some fans given her long history with rivals from Russia. The narrative around Lew has long been that she would challenge the Russians, and her retirement added a layer of unpredictability to the season.

In a personal note, a video post from a skater reflected on retirement after a long career that began at age five. The message spoke of gratitude for friends made on the ice and the joy of a journey that brought more success than expected, even as the athlete closed this chapter. The post resonated with fans who have watched the sport evolve through multiple generations.

Interestingly, both Sakamoto and Hendrix declined to perform ultra-C elements at the World Championships, with neither executing a triple axel or a four-turn jump. It is widely known that among adult female skaters, quad jumps remain rare, and only a select group can perform a quad or the hardest combinations. Among foreign skaters, extraordinary triples are possible for Sakamoto, Higuchi, Kawabe, Yu Yong, Haen Lee, and a few others, while the Russian squad still features athletes capable of executing the most demanding quads. Even so, Trusova’s remarks about triplings in the short program have not always translated into top results in every competition.

Triple axels and quads are notoriously tricky. At the same World Championships, Yong finished fifth and Li seventh, while Higuchi and Kawabe fell out of the top ten to 11th and 15th. This illustrated that a flawless quad is not a guaranteed predictor of podium success for international competition, as demonstrated by skaters who achieved medals with clean programs that did not emphasize ultra-C elements.

Two personal records from Sakamoto stood out: a best free skate and best combined total, enabling her to surpass Anna Shcherbakova, the 2021 world champion, by points. Sakamoto totaled 236.09 points to Shcherbakova’s 233.17, highlighting a moment when the season’s pace and scoring shifted in favor of the Japanese skater.

Looking ahead to next season, changes in nationality for some skaters have reshaped the competitive landscape. For example, Anastasia Gubanova began representing Georgia and finished sixth at the World Championships, performing elements cleanly but receiving moderate component scores. European competition shows a strong showing, with Gubanova placing second to Hendrix, signaling potential victories in Grand Prix stages and European Championships. Ekaterina Ryabova, competing for Azerbaijan, and Ekaterina Kurakova, the Polish champion, also demonstrate the growing depth and mobility of skaters across nations.

American women also have a stronger podium case. Mariah Bell finished fourth and Karen Chen eighth at the World Championships, and with the Russian absence, these athletes could contend for medals. Isabeau Levito, only 15, emerged as a rising star after winning the junior world title last season. Her ascent adds a future leader to the US team, while Chen and Bell face a tougher path as they navigate new competition standards and rising talents. The ISU has adjusted age rules, gradually increasing the minimum age for adult competition to 16 this season, with further increases planned in subsequent seasons, which will shape the next cohort of skaters.

In summary, Sakamoto and Hendrix appear strong favorites for the upcoming season, though ultimate results will depend on each athlete’s execution. With clean programs, the skaters named above could contend for medals at major events, even without the Russian participants.

What awaits the Russian women when competition resumes?

Russia faces a season largely isolated from international events, while its skaters remain among the world’s most technically skilled. When competition resumes, the core Russian lineup is expected to include Kamila Valieva, Sofia Muravyova, Adelia Petrosyan, Alexandra Trusova, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, and Anna Shcherbakova. These skaters bring quads and triple axels that few others can match, with Tuktamysheva notably showcasing a quad-capable program for her era.

Across international events, Russians tend to compete among themselves, and their national championships often mirror the intensity of global championships. The dynamic suggests continued depth within the national program, with young skaters emerging to fill the void left by aging champions. The world stage would still feel the impact of quad jumps and the progression of younger athletes who are training to take the lead in major events.

In the Russian Championship, 15-year-old Petrosyan achieved a remarkable feat by landing two quadruple jumps in a single program, illustrating the ongoing development of a new generation capable of pushing the technical envelope in both men’s and women’s divisions.

When considering the national team that represented Russia in recent European Championships and Olympic Games, Shcherbakova delivered clean programs and gold in both events in Beijing, Trusova became the first skater to land five quads in the free program at the Games, and Valieva holds multiple world records. The trajectory of these skaters highlights how the next era might unfold if Russian athletes are again eligible for global competition.

What to expect when Russia returns to the world stage?

The timeline for Russia’s readmission remains uncertain. If the season allows it, Shcherbakova, Trusova, and Tuktamysheva could still shine on the world stage. The final outcome of ongoing doping investigations around Valieva remains in question, but fans hold out hope that a return to world starts is possible for the star of the Russian team.

It is important to note that results at championships determine the quotas for next season across World Championship and Grand Prix events. If Russian skaters are allowed to compete, a single quota per event may be allocated initially. To recover a full slate of quotas for the 2026 Olympic Games, Russian skaters would need to perform consistently well. This shift creates opportunities for foreign skaters, particularly in the women’s singles, to pursue medals.

While Russia’s youth program remains highly competitive, the field could intensify as new talents rise. Levito’s development continues to be watched, and competitors such as Mia Kalin from the United States demonstrate that young skaters are increasingly capable of meeting and exceeding demanding technical standards, including multiple quadruple jumps in junior competition bouts.

Time will tell how the world figure skating landscape changes in the absence of Russia. Fans hope the transition will be measured and that protracted political or regulatory changes do not unduly stretch into future seasons.