River Plate’s Libertadores Group D Journey: Path to the Round of 16

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Entering Copa Libertadores Group D, River Plate faced a tense start to the continental campaign, with results threatening to undermine early ambitions of lifting the title. The Millionaire opened the season with two defeats in three outings, leaving little room for error and forcing the team to calculate what would be needed to advance to the knockout rounds far sooner than planned.

The 2023 Libertadores run began with a 3-1 loss in La Paz to The Strongest, followed by a 4-2 triumph over Sporting Cristal at the Monumental, and then a heavy 5-1 defeat away to Fluminense. These results left Núñez’s side anchored at the bottom of Group D, level on points with The Strongest and Sporting Cristal but lagging on a -4 goal difference, a setback that complicated their mission to climb the standings.

On the fourth matchday, The Strongest surprised with a 1-0 victory over Fluminense, a result that did not directly help River and intensified the struggle for progression. Bolivian side The Strongest had moved ahead to six points, three more than River and Sporting Cristal, heightening the urgency for River to regroup.

Despite the bleak start, two positives emerged for Martín Demichelis’ squad: first, the road trips to the most challenging away venues had been completed, albeit ending in defeat; and second, the team still controlled its own destiny, with a clear path to advancing if results went their way.

WHICH RIVER SHOULD BE CLASSIFIED TO THE EIGHTH

The early losses left River with slim odds of finishing first in the group, yet the club could still ensure a place among the last sixteen if it secured victories in the remaining fixtures. The realistic target was to win all three remaining matches to guarantee a spot among the top two and, at minimum, qualification through continental performance regardless of other results.

Should any of the remaining matches fail to provide three points, River would need favorable outcomes from the rest of the group to stay in contention. In this scenario, the decisive game loomed on the horizon: a meeting in Lima on Thursday the 25th against Sporting Cristal that could determine River’s fate in the group stage.

If River won in Peru, and later drew at home against Fluminense while securing a win in the final round against The Strongest, qualification would be secured. A draw in Peru would require additional results, including a win in the last home match and a favorable result elsewhere, to avoid a goal-difference tiebreaker.

A loss in Lima would complicate matters dramatically. If The Strongest kept winning their home games, River would then need peak performances in the final two days and hope that the Bolivians’ goal difference did not tilt the balance unfavorably. Even in that challenging scenario, there could still be a slim chance if River managed a point against the Peruvians in the final round.

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