Spain’s Rafael Nadal enters the tournament with the goal of defending his title, opening against English left-hander Jack Draper. Serbia’s Novak Djokovic, the fourth seed, begins his campaign against a debutant from the Canary Islands in the season’s first major. The draw, determined after the 3 p.m. session at Melbourne Park, placed Nadal and Djokovic on opposite halves, ensuring they could not meet early in the event.
Nadal faces a challenging start in the season’s opening slam, taking on the young, left-handed Draper. Draper brings a big serve and solid rhythm, promising a dynamic first-round clash that could redefine an early-round thriller. Nadal eyes a deep run as he chases Grand Slam glory once more, aiming for his 23rd major title.
In the second round, Nadal would potentially meet the winner of a duel between two Americans. Mackenzie McDonald and Brandon Nakashima are both capable of creating problems with their power and consistency, and either could push Nadal to the limit early in the tournament.
Fellow American Frances Tiafoe, who finished 2022 with strong momentum and carried it into the US Open, could cross Nadal’s path in the fourth round if both advance through the opening three rounds. The clashes promise to be high intensity, with Tiafoe’s aggressive style clashing against Nadal’s relentless defense and craft.
A potential quarterfinal would see Nadal square off against Daniil Medvedev of Russia. Medvedev, who won the 2021 title at the Australian Open and pushed Nadal to the limit in previous meetings, represents a stern test as Nadal aims to reassert his dominance on the hard court.
Semifinal pressure could come from Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece and Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime, seeded sixth. Both players bring a combination of power and court sense that could pose serious threats in the late rounds.
Djokovic, who has a storied history at the US Open, would start by facing Carballes Baena in his first match, a test of whether the Spaniard can weather the storm and keep Djokovic from hitting top form early. The expected path would see Djokovic navigate a potential second-round contest determined by the winner of a match featuring Hugo Dellien or the previous-stage victor.
Djokovic’s schedule suggests a tough third-round date with Grigor Dimitrov, should Dimitrov survive the early rounds, followed by a potential second-round showdown with Aslan Karatsev if both advance. The early rounds could also feature a familiar rematch against a fellow Spaniard, with Pablo Carreño and Pedro Cachin meeting in one of the early rounds, while Roberto Bautista Agut could challenge Joao Sousa to set up a gripping fourth-round scenario. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina could clash with Kazakh Alexander Boyarin in an intriguing early tie as well.
Other notable entries include Albert Ramos-Vinolas in Valencian form facing Maxime Cressy, Pedro Martinez meeting Bernabe Zapata versus Hubert Hurkacz, and Karen Khachanov meeting Jaume Munar, highlighting a mix of established veterans and rising talents in the early rounds.
Norway’s top seed Casper Ruud, alongside Nadal and Djokovic, stands as a leading title contender. He could meet Stefanos Tsitsipas or Italian Matteo Berrettini in the later stages, while Alexander Zverev and Holger Rune also feature prominently in the draw. Medvedev could find himself matched against strong American opposition, including players like Fritz and Giron, in pursuit of a deep run.
Andrey Rublev remains in the mix as a perennial favorite, with the draw potentially pairing him against Dominic Thiem or other big-occasion contenders. Nikoloz Basilashvili and Jannik Sinner also appear in the mix, with Sinner facing a potential clash against Kyle Edmund in a storyline matchup worthy of a late-round spark.
Nadal’s path could see him facing Cameron Norrie in a tricky first step, while Argentina’s Diego Schwartzman continues to show resilience at this level. Francisco Cerundolo might face Guido Pella in a fiercely contested early-round encounter, and Sebastian Baez is slated to face a local opponent before a big test awaits the next phase of the draw. Chile’s Cristian Garin could draw American Sebastian Korda early, adding a compelling cross-continental narrative to the opening rounds.
Possible quarterfinal matches include: Nadal versus Medvedev; Tsitsipas versus Auger-Aliassime; Rublev versus Djokovic; and Fritz versus Ruud. These matchups highlight a blend of established champions and up-and-coming stars ready to push for the late stages and potentially redefine the title picture for the season’s early major.
Note: The above scenarios reflect typical seedings and potential matchups based on recent form and historical performance. They are intended to illustrate possible paths through the tournament rather than to predict exact outcomes. Analysts and fans should monitor live results for the final, authoritative bracket as play unfolds, with detailed results and matchups updated after each round.[Cite: ATP, official tournament coverage]”