Giro d’Italia: A Turn Toward the Decisive Week
He returns to Italy this Tuesday and enters a pivotal week that could decide the race. Through the first half of the event, the mood was steady, even with Remco Evenepoel grabbing two recent time trial wins. The 23-year-old Belgian talent had to withdraw from the Giro after a covid setback, which left the Italian grand tour feeling less anchored, with a clear favourite unclear, and a stretch where four of the six stages sparked controversy and debate.
What went wrong at the Giro?
The Giro has long leaned into its reputation for packing the toughest days into a compact schedule, making it the most grueling of the three grand tours in terms of stage intensity. Yet that does not automatically translate to nonstop drama. Most often, the favorites spend days wondering what lies ahead. The race now appears to hinge on high mountain days to shape the outcome, while the rest serves as a backdrop for strategic moves. This pattern echoes recent seasons, including 2020 and 2022, when riders like Egan Bernal found crucial moments to steer the narrative. The takeaway is clear: bold, decisive moves on the climbs remain essential to determining the winner.
Why didn’t the riders who bet on spectacle go all-in?
The Giro-Tour dynamic feels dated to some fans. Since the late 1990s, when Marco Pantani burst onto the scene, winners seldom sweep both Italy and France in the same season. Doping investigations have shed light on cycling’s complicated past, with police actions, rider strikes, suspended stages, and withdrawals shaping the sport. Riders who typically steal the show, like Tadej Pogacar, faced crashes that delayed a return to Italy, while Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, and Wout van Aert have been more closely associated with the Tour. Last year, Van der Poel drew attention at the Giro but arrived in France exhausted and ultimately stepped away from the race.
What will happen to Roglic?
Roglic has always been fleet and unpredictable, yet this Giro has seen him adopt a restrained approach. From Italy he described a deliberate downshift that contributed to his exit. Tactically, his team has often chosen a different path, with Ineos setting a tempo in the closing stages. Geraint Thomas briefly seized second in the standings during the second week. He sits a few seconds behind the overall leader, and there is no need for reckless charges. The Dolomites offer a potential turning point, especially if Thomas conserves energy for a late surge. Ongoing physical issues from a prior crash have limited his form, which helps explain a cautious approach as the finish nears.
Why doesn’t Thomas attack?
Geraint Thomas, a former Tour de France winner who finished second in Paris and third on the Champs-Élysées last year, showed limited ability to threaten for the title in 2022. Approaching 38, he did not push for a bold break, relying on Ineos to support him. The plan mirrors the team’s view of the race: keep riders fresh and strike in the final individual time trial, if the course allows.
Why didn’t the Spaniards go?
For similar strategic reasons that have shaped cycling’s elite. Riders like Enric Mas, Miguel Ángel Landa, and Bilbao’s squad focused on the Tour, while Carlos Rodríguez planned a debut that would exceed expectations at the Tour de France. Juan Ayuso faced health concerns that delayed a Romandie start until late April, preserving his form for later clashes. Only seven riders remained after a series of crashes and withdrawals, including Oscar Rodríguez. The Spaniards have had a supporting role here, making a stage win in the remaining days unlikely.
How to activate the Giro?
The decisive moves must come from the general classification contenders. Early attacks, especially three planned mountain days on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday, are expected to shuffle the order. With enough ascents, opportunities will arise to topple the Giro and leave a lasting impression for the season’s endgame.
He returns to Italy this Tuesday and enters the decisive week. In the first 15 days of the competition, he did so without emotion, despite almost nothing but Remco Evenepoel’s past two time trial victories. Yet the 23-year-old Belgian phenomenon had to leave the event due to covid, feeling the Italian round was orphaned, injured without a clear favourite, and entering a period of upheaval where four of the six stages stirred controversy. This framing mirrors the broader conversation around the Giro as the race moves into its final acts, with riders weighing strategy against the unpredictable mountain routes ahead, and with the overall winner likely to emerge from a blend of endurance, tact, and bold late moves.