Machín faces a tough task with Elche, yet triumph remains feasible
Elche confronts a challenge that hasn’t been solved before, but it can be done. The club holds several key ideas to cling to in this fragile moment. While only informed guesses are possible right now, solid data points exist that could help Pablo Machín’s squad secure survival estimates.
The goal is intricate, yet there is room to grow
VL Deltel
last season
When examining the numbers, it is clear that in the previous campaign Elche avoided relegation on the final day, just seven points above the drop line. In the 2021-2022 season, the franciverde side earned 11 points, with draws against Athletic Club, Sevilla, Levante, Espanyol and Mallorca, and wins at home against Getafe and Celta. The arrival of Francisco changed the mood with victories over Cádiz, Espanyol, Villarreal, Alavés, Rayo Vallecano, Granada, Mallorca, Betis and Getafe. Those eight days brought three points apiece, totaling 27, plus draws with Osasuna, Granada and Real Madrid, arriving at 31 points overall.
point limit
With the current tally and four points in hand, the team could reach 35 and stand near safety. Cádiz collected 39 last season, but in other years it was lower, as in the previous year with 35 or in 2018 with 30. To match last season, the squad would need a second-half surge of 9 wins and 4 draws in 24 games. There is a real chance. Yet in the present circumstances the only way to ensure survival is for Elche to win half of its remaining matches. With 24 league days left, achieving 12 wins would hit 40 points (or 10 wins and six draws), a level that historically has secured safety in the past decade.
Machín: “We will be a stronger Elche with more options to win”
JA Galvanized
two campaigns ago
In the 2020-2021 season, Elche started stronger, reaching the 14th matchday with notably better results. They defeated Eibar and Alavés away and earned points at Martínez Valero against Valencia. Only three wins, nine points, but many draws, especially against Huesca, Celta, Levante, Cádiz, Villarreal, Osasuna and Real Madrid.
As of the 15th matchday of this campaign, Elche benefited from the arrival of Fran Escribá, collecting wins against Eibar, Seville, Levante, Cádiz and Athletic Club and drawing with Valladolid, Villarreal, Getafe and Betis. This produced 20 points, and reaching 36 seemed to guarantee safety. On the final day, with the idea of a second-half run after the World Cup break, the team could only amass 24 points.
technician numbers
Another tough moment for the squad is in the midfield. Machín arrived at Girona 13 days before the end of the Segunda Division in the 2013-2014 season. His team was near the bottom and clung to safety with eight points of persistence, mirroring Elche’s current struggle.
The new manager led the Catalan club to safety with a record of four losses, three draws and six wins. In percentage terms, wins stood at 46 percent and draws at 23 percent. If those figures are transposed to present-day Elche, the club could add 11 wins and 5 draws, totaling 38 more points to the four already earned. Survival would be within reach if Machín could recapture that balance in the current fragile period in Girona.
Elche faces a remarkable task that has not been accomplished before, yet it remains possible. In this delicate moment, several solid indicators point toward a path to permanence for Pablo Machín’s team.
Machín: “The goal is demanding, but there is still room for improvement”
VL Deltel
last season
Reviewing the numbers from the prior campaign shows Elche saved themselves on the same day as mentioned, eight points above the drop. In 2021-2022, the franciverde group collected 11 points, including draws with Athletic Club, Sevilla, Levante, Espanyol and Mallorca, plus wins at Getafe and Celta. Francisco’s arrival reshaped the team with wins over Cádiz, Espanyol, Villarreal, Alavés, Rayo Vallecano, Granada, Mallorca, Betis and Getafe. Those eight days yielded three points each, adding up to 27. The draws with Osasuna, Granada, and Real Madrid would push the total to 31 points.
point limit
With the current four-point lead, Elche could reach 35 and approach safety. Cádiz tallied 39 last year, though other seasons saw lower totals, such as 35 or 30 in 2018. Matching last season would require a second-half push of 9 wins and 4 draws in 24 games. There is a real chance. However, given the present scenario, the only guarantee of permanence is winning half of the remaining matches. With 24 days left, 12 wins would yield 40 points (or 10 wins and six draws), a figure that has consistently signaled safety over the past decade.
Machín: “We will be a stronger Elche and have more options to win”
JA Galvanized
two campaigns ago
In the 2020-2021 season, Elche reached the 14th matchday with better momentum, beating Eibar and Alavés away and securing Valencia at home. They had only three wins and nine points, but many draws against Huesca, Celta, Levante, Cádiz, Villarreal, Osasuna and Real Madrid.
By matchday 15 of this campaign, Elche benefited from Fran Escribá, securing wins over Eibar, Seville, Levante, Cádiz and Athletic Club and drawing with Valladolid, Villarreal, Getafe and Betis. This produced 20 points and 36 on the board suggested safety. On the final day, the approach of a second-half run post-World Cup meant the team could only reach 24 points.
technician numbers
Another pressing issue is in the central area. Machín arrived in Girona just days before the end of the 2013-2014 Segunda Division season. His team was bottom and fought to stay up with eight points of resilience, a fate similar to Elche today.
The new coach led the Catalan club to safety with four losses, three draws and six wins. In percentage terms, that means 46 percent wins and 23 percent draws. Translating these numbers to the present, Elche could add 11 wins and 5 draws, totaling 38 points on top of the four already earned. Survival would hinge on Machín regaining that balance in this critical period in Girona.