Elche CF returns to training this Wednesday after a week away, focused and ready. With the season’s dynamics in mind, the club can look at the historical data from the last 13 campaigns to gauge what lies ahead under the current promotion structure from the second to the first division. Artificial intelligence projects a likelihood of direct promotion hovering around 71.3 points across the remaining 21 matches. Yet the model stresses that this is an estimate based on prior averages and that actual results can differ.
Looking closer at the numbers, over the past 13 seasons direct promotion thresholds have varied widely, from 69 points in easier campaigns to as high as 85 points in tougher ones. The swing underscores how much each campaign can shift the required total depending on the competitors and the timing of results.
Affordable play-offs
Logically, reaching the play-offs is more achievable. The artificial intelligence model suggests needs of about 64.61 points on average, effectively 65 points, to secure a spot in the second phase. If Elche can lift the efficiency achieved in the first round, where they collected 30 points, they would be merely three points away from the playoff line.
To reach promotion via the playoffs, teams typically need around 61 points in recent years. This benchmark has been met in three instances, including Elche’s promotion when finishing sixth. In the most challenging play-off years, around 71 points were required.
Elche CF is already breaking away from its past
Stock analysis of the club’s trajectory shows a progressive shift from previous seasons, with a focus on building consistency and maximizing points across phases. The team is charting a course that aligns with recent trends in promotion thresholds and playoff qualifications, reflecting a strategic evolution in performance and squad depth.
from year to year
Last season saw Granada and Las Palmas advance directly with 75 and 72 points. Levante, contending in the playoff mix alongside Alavés, Eibar and Albacete, finished with 67 points and earned a playoff opportunity. The playoff structure and tiebreakers shaped the final outcomes, including the playoff progression and direct promotions.
In the 2021-2022 campaign, Girona clinched the playoff title with 68 points, while Tenerife, Las Palmas and Eibar led the pack. The Catalan club then moved forward, joining Almería and Real Valladolid in securing direct promotion with 81 points.
During 2020-2021, Espanyol and Mallorca rose to the top two spots with 82 points. Leganés, Almería, Girona and Rayo Vallecano contested the playoff and finished sixth with 67 points, with the Madrid side advancing to the first division.
Elche CF’s most recent climb to the top occurred in August 2020. The 2019-2020 season, shaped by the pandemic, saw a team led by Pacheta finish sixth with 61 points, entering the playoffs and overcoming a memorable goal sequence against Girona. Huesca and Cádiz earned direct promotion that year with 70 and 69 points, marking the season as one of the more affordable rises in recent history.
In 2018-2019, Osasuna and Granada secured direct promotion with 87 and 79 points, respectively. Málaga, Albacete, Mallorca and Deportivo de La Coruña reached the playoff rounds with 68 points, while Elche finished 11th on 55 and Mallorca emerged victorious in the tie.
One of Elche’s recent training sessions before Christmas highlighted the club’s ongoing development efforts and commitment to improving performance under pressure.
Promotion to Second Place
In 2017-2018, Rayo Vallecano and Huesca earned direct promotion with 76 and 75 points. Real Zaragoza, Sporting de Gijón, Real Valladolid and Numancia, all on 65 points, sought promotion through playoff routes. That season marked Elche’s rise from the fourth tier into the second division, a pivotal moment in the club’s competitive arc.
In 2016-2017, Levante and Girona finished first and second with 84 and 70 points. Getafe, Tenerife, Cádiz and Huesca battled in the playoff frame, with the Madrid club ultimately prevailing in the end.
During 2015-2016, Alavés and Leganés reached direct promotion with 75 and 74 points. Nàstic finished sixth with 64 points, paving the way for Girona, Córdoba and Osasuna to advance via playoffs. That season, Elche faced relegation challenges, finishing 21st with 43 points.
In 2014-2015, Betis and Sporting de Gijón moved up directly with 84 and 82 points. Girona, Las Palmas, Real Valladolid and Real Zaragoza reached the playoffs, each around the 61-point mark, while Catalan teams captured some notable playoff outcomes.
In 2013-2014, Córdoba, in seventh place with 61 points in the playoff group, achieved promotion. Eibar and Deportivo de La Coruña moved up by finishing in the top two with 71 and 69 points respectively.
The first years of the new system
In 2012-2013, Elche and Villarreal earned direct promotion with 82 and 77 points. Almería, Girona, Alcorcón and Las Palmas followed with 66 points, earning promotion through the playoff pathway supported by a strong league structure.
Looking back at 2011-2012, Deportivo and Celta rose with 91 and 85 points. Valladolid, Alcorcón, Hércules and Córdoba contended in the playoff and finished sixth with 71 points. The league also highlighted Pacenza’s rise.
The 2010-2011 season introduced a two-direct-promotion model and a playoff system partly reshaped the competition. Betis and Rayo Vallecano led directly with 83 and 79 points, while Elche finished fourth in the playoffs behind teams like Barça B, Granada, Celta de Vigo and Real Valladolid, all showcasing 66 points. The playoff path remained a crucial route to the top division.