negative line
Carlos Alcaraz, currently among the top seeds, anchors a field of eight of the season’s best. The tournament gathers players who had to watch last year from the sidelines due to injuries, all aiming to lift the title that crowns the year-end season. The Masters record, established in Tokyo in 1970, has seen a few Spanish players etch their names on the trophy since Manuel Orantes and Alex Corretja first made that journey in the late 20th century. Carlos Moya, Juan Carlos Ferrero, David Ferrer, and Rafael Nadal are part of a storied lineage with wins spanning 1998 to 2013.
The Murcian star is considered the second favorite after Djokovic, though his form towards the close of the season has not matched the meteoric peak of a year in which he captured six titles, including Wimbledon.
negative line
Alcaraz has managed only five wins recently and was swept in his Paris-Bercy Masters opener. Djokovic, chasing a seventh title in this event, has enjoyed a long history of success here. A stretch without a single victory in the group stage would be unprecedented for the Serbian in this tournament since his debut in 2007, though such an outcome remains highly unlikely given his experience and consistency.
In the green group, the opening matches begin on Monday with Alcaraz facing Medvedev, a matchup already containing two wins for Medvedev. Rublev has yet to play, while Zverev has a 3-3 record in this head-to-heads history. The German champion claimed the event crowns in 2018 and 2021, while Medvedev captured the title in 2020.
Chasing records
Djokovic shows a commanding edge in meetings versus his group rivals. Against Jannik Sinner he leads 3-0, against Stefanos Tsitsipas he leads 11-2, and against Holger Rune the rivalry sits at 2-2. At 36, Djokovic stands as a prime candidate to claim a seventh Masters crown and push beyond the current shared record of six titles. Roger Federer finished the year atop the rankings eight times and surpassed Pete Sampras, who held seven year-end No. 1s. Djokovic has already boosted his Masters 1000 tally in the Paris event, reaching 40 finals appearances, with Nadal close behind at 36. A note from last year indicated improved results and an ongoing drive to extend that legacy at the end of the season.
The No. 1 seed has lifted the Nitto ATP Finals six times in its history, specifically in 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2022, while posting an impressive 64-match record at the event. This season, Djokovic arrives in Turin with six titles to his name, including the Australian Open, Roland Garros, and the US Open, and a remarkable 51 wins against only five losses overall this year. [Citation: ATP publications and official records]