“Throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks.”
The case of American Paul Whelan, who was convicted of espionage in Russia, has long sparked debate about swapped prisoners and what counts as fair exchange. In a BBC interview he described how U.S. officials still fight to bring him home, insisting that a swap deal remains possible even as they grapple with limited options. He referred to the ongoing struggle to secure his release as one of the defining strains of his life in captivity.
“Serious betrayal. This is extremely frustrating,” Whelan said in a phone conversation. He noted that Washington had received several credible offers for prisoner exchanges, yet they did not align with what Moscow would accept. He stressed that Washington continued to review potential paths to a deal as time slips by. Five years have passed since his detention, he pointed out, underscoring the personal toll of the delay.
Whelan acknowledged that the United States was, in his words, throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what might stick. He worried about ending up at the back of the queue in any future cross-border exchange, highlighting the real human stakes involved in diplomatic bargaining.
Over the years, several prisoner exchanges between Russia and the United States have occurred. In 2022 Russia exchanged American sailor Trevor Reed for Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko. Earlier, in December, Russia returned to the United States basketball player Brittney Griner, convicted of drug-related offenses, while Russia received Viktor Bout, a Russian who had been imprisoned in the United States on arms smuggling and terrorism-related charges. Whelan’s name appeared in some negotiation rounds, but a release was not achieved.
“We want to reach an agreement”
Whelan was detained in Moscow in 2018. In 2020 he was sentenced by the Moscow City Court to 16 years in a maximum-security penal colony under Article 276 of the Criminal Code, commonly described as espionage. He has been serving his sentence in a Mordovian penal facility.
The Wall Street Journal reported in the spring that Russia had floated a potential swap involving Vadim Krasikov, a former FSB officer currently serving a life term in Germany for the killing of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, a Georgian citizen of Chechen origin. Vladimir Putin publicly stated that Moscow would not block a replacement if the terms were favorable, reinforcing Moscow’s stance on the balance of concessions in any exchange.
During a December discourse, Putin signaled a willingness to pursue swaps on terms that were acceptable to both sides. He urged assessment of the exchanges through a humanitarian lens and emphasized that phrases from both sides should be understood and respected. He stated that Russia and the United States were engaged in a difficult dialogue about the matter but remained open to mutually acceptable resolutions that could address humanitarian concerns.
On the topic of U.S. policy, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Whelan in August. The assistant secretary conveyed that Washington was pressing hard to secure his return and that the conversation was lengthy and candid. Reports indicate this marked the second direct call between Blinken and Whelan while he remained in captivity, though details about how the call was arranged were not fully disclosed by sources. A CNN summary noted that the opportunity for a call from a Mordovian facility existed, but the precise logistics were not specified.
A Wall Street Journal briefing from the White House in early April suggested the United States was exploring creative pathways for Whelan’s exchange. A spokesperson indicated that Washington was constantly evaluating potential options that comply with the law while aiming to be timely and beneficial. In Whelan’s own account from the Mordovian colony, he described nightly awakenings and a lack of English-speaking medical staff, along with other perceived challenges. Reports also referenced a separate incident in 2022 involving a prison hospital intervention and a later assault by a Turkish prisoner who reportedly acted against fellow inmates in ways connected to his views on the United States, illustrating the broader tensions inside the system.
The broader context remains one of cautious diplomacy, with officials in Washington reiterating the desire to secure a humane and lawful resolution. Observers in the policy and international-law communities note that any swap involves a delicate balance of national security considerations, humanitarian principles, and domestic political dynamics in both countries. The overarching aim for many is a resolution that honors due process while acknowledging the human cost of protracted detentions.
In this ongoing story, the central thread is the effort to align terms that satisfy both parties, ensuring a fair and viable outcome. The dialogue continues to center on creating conditions where exchanges can occur without compromising lawful standards or security concerns, while also prioritizing the basic hope of returning individuals to their families and communities.
As governments weigh options, observers stress the importance of transparency, accountability, and a consistent framework for future negotiations. The focus remains on achieving a settlement that respects law, safeguards national interests, and recognizes the humanity at the core of any prisoner exchange debate. At stake is not only the fate of a single individual but the broader precedent for how such cases are handled in the future, setting a benchmark for the treatment of detainees and the contours of international diplomacy. Attribution: reports from major outlets and official statements summarized for context.