The pre-election narrative keeps returning to Vega Baja as a pivotal district in shaping governance across the province, with attention on the Provincial Council and the Cortes, and of course the Generalitat Palace. A year after the double-polling in 2023, political actors are lining up strategies aimed at swaying voters in a region where forecasts consistently point to growing influence for the far-right. The next electoral scene in Orihuela, the historic capital nearby, remains notably undefined at this stage.
The political maneuvering around a local board vote, just over a month ago, shifted momentum away from the PP toward the PSOE, with Cs playing a decisive supporting role. Unlike many large municipalities in the country, neither the socialists nor the public have activated a leadership renewal plan on an organic timetable, a step often key to identifying future candidates. All this happens while Inés Arrimadas contemplates whether the party will tolerate a government change without consent. Meanwhile, Vox supporters are hopeful about the prospects predicted by polls and the potential to influence governance, possibly reaching a position within the provincial institution in this round.
The Orihuela socialist group stands out as the only one in the Valencian Community that has not convened its assembly to elect a local secretary. Ferraz granted a notable exception, as the local timetable overlapped with the deliberations of a no-confidence motion that brought Carolina Gracia to the mayoralty. The internal clash within the party was not meant to taint the overarching effort to win government, especially since it became obvious there would be an opponent to Gracia in the form of Antonio Zapata. In short, this marks the last round of intraparty contention between factions aligned with different figures after Ximo Puig’s loss of provincial control. Now, the municipal leadership has reached out to the party’s federal body to schedule the postponed assembly, which is expected to take place in a matter of weeks.
The councilor and, at present, local secretary of the Socialists has affirmed participation but has not clarified whether he will seek the PSOE nomination for a third time in municipal elections. Gracia indicates that her focus remains on City Council management, though insiders acknowledge that a scenario where he relinquishes a candidacy is also being considered. It is anticipated that Zapata will advance further in the organic process and gain backing from the provincial framework led by Alejandro Soler.
Other voices in the picture include the complex crosscurrents around party leaderships in the province. In Orihuela, a key council race is simmering as potential leaders weigh their options. The region is watching how the local dynamics align with broader national trends, where party fortunes can swing on local results as much as on national sentiment. Within the commentary, Pact-style coalitions and tactical candidacies are frequently discussed as possible routes to power.
Orihuela’s PP appears uncertain about its short-term trajectory as district leadership shifts take shape. The district administrator, acting on directives from district head Carlos Mazón, opted to delay a ruling on who should control the party in Orihuela until after the summer, extending beyond a six-month window that once signaled a potential coup. In some circles, Mazón’s leadership is viewed as weighing whether to back a candidate who can unify the party in a split field.
Looking ahead, the opening of a new municipal center is slated for next week after Mazón previously halted two openings due to rent concerns. He is now positioning himself as the principal face of the project during a rally with party militants, signaling a hands-on approach to delivering visible outcomes ahead of elections.
war drums
Supposedly, regional PP figures under Mazón and allied with former mayor Mónica Lorente are expected to integrate into the machine to support a new local president. Yet the outcome remains uncertain, and Mazón has not quieted the drumbeat of a dynamic campaign. Aparicio has not concealed his ambition to run for mayor of Orihuela, provided the party allows it. When Genoa previously challenged Bascuñana’s incumbency, it forced a withdrawal, illustrating the fragility of local alliances.
The party’s core strength in the Community appears to be under pressure, drawing the attention of Vox as disillusionment grows with managerial choices. Vox analysts suggest some Orihuela factions may shift camps, and in certain circles, Lieutenant General Manuel Mestre, now a standing congressman, could lead the municipal slate if he opts in. A sense of momentum is palpable among Abascalians, who sense a surge in Vega Baja where polls show the party as the second-most-voted force in the provincial capital and beyond. While national and municipal voting diverge, there is broad expectation that support could strengthen, particularly around agricultural policy and regional development, a theme attracting frequent public action from the party and its opponents alike.
PP makes a move in Villena and delays Alcoy’s appointment
The PP continues to address the unknowns surrounding party leadership in some of the province’s larger towns. Villena is a focal point, where Pepe Hernández is positioned to lead the party for the next four years. A key unresolved issue remains the leadership appointment in Alcoy. As with Orihuela, it appears the decision will be deferred until after the summer, as the race for 2023 remains unclear and the ideal profile for that year’s campaign is still being refined.
Note: This analysis reflects ongoing regional political dynamics and the volatile nature of local leadership battles. Sources include party communications, regional political briefings, and expert analysis from regional commentary outlets.