Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said the United States does not see a credible path to negotiations that could resolve the Ukraine conflict. She suggested that short-term breakthroughs through talks are unlikely as both Moscow and Kyiv appear confident in continuing military gains.
She told the Senate Armed Services Committee that in the near term a viable diplomatic track does not seem probable because both sides anticipate the capacity to press for advances on the battlefield. The assessment points to a possibility that Ukraine could become more unpredictable and face heightened escalation in the coming months.
The head of the national intelligence enterprise warned that the conflict may feature significant battles in the next month or two as Russian forces intensify their efforts and pursue strategic objectives on the ground.
long conflict
The director noted that a Russian victory in the Donbass would not mark the end of the war. He outlined expectations of substantial clashes in the near term as Moscow seeks to expand control, including potential moves to widen the land corridor in Transnistria and to cement authority over Kherson.
prevent the Third World War
Haines emphasized that Russia would not resort to nuclear weapons unless an existential threat to the state or regime was perceived, while acknowledging the role of nuclear rhetoric as a deterrent against Western arms support to Kyiv. He asserted that President Putin could authorize nuclear use only if the Kremlin views the situation as existentially threatening to Russia.
The intelligence chief added that the ongoing nuclear rhetoric serves a purpose to deter the United States and its allies from increasing arm supplies to Ukraine. He suggested that if Washington perceives that Moscow is ignoring certain warnings, Russia could be driven to conduct another major nuclear exercise. Defense Intelligence Director Scott Berrier corroborated that Moscow appears not to be moving toward the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine at present, noting a continued focus on the issue.
How many guns does Kiev need?
U.S. officials acknowledged uncertainty about how much additional military aid Ukraine can absorb. The national intelligence community admitted that Washington does not have a complete on-the-ground picture of Ukrainian troop movements and needs. Avril Haines stated that the United States likely has more insight into Russian capabilities than into Ukraine’s situation, which raised questions about whether a substantial surge in weapons transfers is prudent. He also voiced concern about the risk of aggravating the conflict through broader arms deliveries.
Officials reiterated support for Ukraine while cautioning against actions that could trigger a larger, global confrontation. The Wall Street Journal reported that Congress could soon vote on a sizable $40 billion military aid package for Kyiv. In late May, President Joe Biden announced additional assistance, highlighting that existing funds were nearing exhaustion and urging lawmakers to approve a new package of roughly $33 billion to sustain Ukraine. A Law on Lend-Lease, intended to streamline weapons transfers, was enacted, reviving a program originally established decades ago to support allied countries. The move reflected a broader effort to maintain military support for Kyiv in the face of ongoing fighting.