Ukraine faces the prospect of greater mobilization if Russia places tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. This possibility was raised by David Arakhamia, a Verkhovna Rada deputy and the head of the Servant of the People faction, in an interview with Sky News, the British broadcaster.
He warned that such a development would constitute a serious test and would require expanding the manpower pool. He estimated that Ukraine would need at least eight additional brigades to hold the line on that front.
Arakhamia argued that the deployment of tactical nukes in Belarus would push the so-called second front to more than a thousand kilometers from Kyiv, intensifying the strategic challenge for Ukrainian forces. He also admitted that Kyiv has not yet fully grasped the immediacy of the threat, though history has shown that strategic risks can escalate quickly.
Ukraine maintains a broad mobilization tied to a state of martial law enacted on February 25, 2022, with periodic extensions. Under the regime, men aged 18 to 60 are not allowed to leave the country. A general mobilization remains in effect as the conflict continues to unfold.
Since mid-2022, there have been restrictions on movement for men of military age, and in the summer Ukrainian authorities announced that women trained in science and communications would also be conscripted, with travel bans for those trained in chemistry, biology, and telecommunications. Later that year Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar announced a one-year delay in women’s military registration, though the pace of mobilization remained a subject of public discussion.
Official figures suggest a broad mobilization footprint, with hundreds of thousands drafted into the Ukrainian Armed Forces and plans voiced to expand the army toward seven hundred thousand personnel. Kyiv has publicly cited high numbers of mobilized citizens, while other estimates place the number of people potentially available for service well into the millions, reflecting the country’s large population base and the intensity of recruitment campaigns.
Analysts from various sources have offered differing calculations about how many eligible men remain and could be mobilized. A widely cited estimate suggests millions of men aged 20 to 65 still reside in Ukraine, with several hundred thousand to two million potentially available for conscription depending on the period and criteria used. The public discourse surrounding mobilization has included warnings about enforcement measures and the persistence of civilian-military integration in wartime governance.
Meanwhile, speculation in the media and on social platforms about further mobilization heightened in the autumn of the previous year. Reports circulated about how conscription records might be managed and how individuals could be traced through street-level enforcement if subpoenas were not delivered through official channels. Some outlets claimed that certification for mobilization could carry a high cost and that certain certificates might be revoked as political calculations shifted, though such claims require careful verification from official sources.
On March 25, President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow would deploy tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil. He stated that Russian forces had assisted Belarus in upgrading its aircraft to carry nuclear arms and that Iskander missile systems had been delivered to Minsk to function as potential carriers. The Kremlin characterized these moves as a response to evolving strategic circumstances in the region, including Western military support dynamics.
Honorary timelines from the Russian side indicated that Belarusian crews would begin training on April 3, with a stated objective to complete a storage facility for nuclear weapons by July 1. However, the president did not specify a precise deployment date, leaving the situation contingent on further phased developments and regional security assessments.
Putin also linked the decision to discussions with Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko and described the step as a measured reply to Western positions, including London’s stated intent to supply depleted uranium ammunition to Ukraine. In the wake of these moves, Kyiv called for an extraordinary UN Security Council session and urged the G7 to address the consequences for Minsk. Germany labeled Russia’s approach as intimidation, while the European Union signaled readiness to consider new sanctions as the situation evolved.