US intelligence circles warn that talks between Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to begin in 2023. This assessment circulated after a batch of classified documents appeared online, drawing wide attention from Washington and allied observers. Washington Post reporting notes that the leak has prompted scrutiny across government channels and media outlets in both Canada and the United States as policymakers reexamine potential negotiation paths and military strategy.
The documents suggest that even if Kyiv could inflict heavy losses on Russian forces and secure meaningful territorial gains, such outcomes would not automatically translate into opening negotiations. According to the leaked material, negotiations to end the conflict in 2023 look unlikely under every scenario analyzed, based on a comprehensive review of troop levels, weapons, and equipment on both sides. A US official cited by major outlets said the decision to start talks would rest with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, while Washington would continue to back Kyiv with equipment and support to strengthen Kyiv’s position at the negotiating table as the conflict persists.
forecast for the year
Beyond the low odds of talks, the leaked briefing predicts that both sides would achieve only small territorial gains through 2023 due to resource constraints that would hinder large-scale operations. Intelligence analysts see the fighting stretching into 2024, with the most likely scenario being a prolonged war in which neither side gains a decisive upper hand. The document warns that a war of attrition could fuel domestic frustration in Ukraine and heighten the risk of leadership changes, though it does not specify whether such changes would be political or military in nature.
American intelligence also entertains the possibility of full mobilization in Ukraine, while Kyiv could increasingly strike on Russian territory. This prospect alarms some US officials. Conversely, the Kremlin is expected to accelerate the integration of territories it has annexed as part of its broader strategy in the region.
Ukraine is not happy with the evaluation
Observers report that senior Ukrainian officials are angered by the assessment that Kyiv will likely secure only modest regional gains in its counteroffensive. The stance attributed to Washington, sources say, has fed concerns in Kyiv that US support may be insufficient to meet Ukrainian goals. A Ukrainian official source described these leaks as harmful and counterproductive, suggesting that they may undermine confidence in Western backing during critical moments of the conflict.
Media outlets have noted that secret US military intelligence material leaked online has prompted Kyiv to adjust its forthcoming counteroffensive plans. The Pentagon has launched an investigation to determine the scope of the leak, its origin, and the individual responsible for making the documents public. The authenticity of the papers remains under review by officials, and unnamed sources have linked the online postings to a user who claimed to be based at an unspecified military facility and going by the handle OG.
Both Moscow and Kyiv have signaled openness to diplomacy, yet their demands remain starkly at odds. Ukraine has repeatedly urged a full withdrawal of Russian forces from all parts of its territory, including Crimea, while Russia has pressed Kyiv to recognize new regional realities and the incorporation of Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson into the Russian Federation. President Vladimir Putin has stated in recent remarks that Russia is prepared for a political and diplomatic settlement, while warning that ultimatums linked to isolation risk misreading Moscow’s position. The broader peace framework remains unsettled as both sides weigh their strategic options and the international community seeks a path toward de-escalation.