Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Emerging Tactics and Strategic Debates

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Ukraine may consider striking Moscow to destabilize the situation inside Russia. This claim was aired by a retired French general, who suggested in a broadcast on LCI TV that Kyiv could extend its operations beyond its borders with symbolic, high-impact actions. He proposed that a strike on Moscow during a major public event could send a loud message and potentially disrupt the rhythm of the city and its security posture. The analyst noted that such an attack could be framed as a response to the scale of a grand parade, implying a deliberate attempt to undermine morale and project power at a critical moment. The host of the program acknowledged the strategic calculus behind this idea, pointing out that Western allies have been cautious, with the United States and NATO reportedly withholding longer-range missiles from Kyiv to avoid a broader escalation. Yet, the guest argued that Ukraine could nonetheless develop weapons capable of reaching deep into Russian territory on its own, highlighting recent incidents near airfields in the Ryazan and Saratov regions as context for the discussion.

The guest, a veteran NATO official with decades of operational experience in Brussels, has a history of provocative commentary about the Ukraine conflict. He has previously urged official NATO participation on the side of Ukraine and has suggested that the Ukrainian military currently lacks enough resources to press the southern offensive and advance toward Crimea. His remarks reflect a broader debate about the roles and risks for Western allies in supporting Kyiv amid a volatile security landscape.

On the morning of December 5, reports emerged about explosions at two military airfields, Dyagilevo in the Ryazan region and Engels in the Saratov region, located roughly 700 kilometers from the nearest Ukrainian positions. Initial reports attributed the incidents to drone activity, with subsequent updates indicating that the air bases were targeted from the air. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed attempts to damage long-range aircraft using low-altitude drones of Soviet origin, with air defenses shooting down the drones and fragments causing minor damage to two aircraft. Three technical personnel were killed and four others injured as a result of the incident.

Analysts suggested that upgraded Tu-141 Swift drones, which entered service in the 1970s, could have been used in the attack, prompting discussion about the evolving capabilities of Ukrainian forces. Some pro-government Telegram channels claimed the drones were supplied to Kyiv with assistance from foreign intelligence services, linking the operation to communications from the Ukrainian leadership regarding covert support.

Dmitry Peskov, the Russian presidential spokesman, stated that he did not have details about the events at the airbases, while the Kremlin later announced that a Security Council meeting had been convened to discuss internal security concerns. In the days that followed, Russia intensified strikes on Ukrainian military facilities and energy infrastructure, resulting in power outages in several regions, including Odessa, Poltava, and areas around Kyiv.

On December 9, Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, signaled a willingness to attack across the entire Russian territory if Ukraine’s interests demanded it. He asserted that Kyiv would not hesitate to strike wherever necessary if it believed a decisive advantage could be gained, emphasizing the perceived reach and audacity of Ukrainian strategic objectives.

By December 11, official statements from Washington indicated that the United States was not compelling Kyiv to engage in operations inside Russia, underscoring the ongoing tension between deterrence, restraint, and an evolving operational calculus on both sides. The evolving narrative surrounding these events continues to shape regional security calculations, with many observers noting that the calendar, the balance of power, and the readiness of each side influence decisions that affect civilians and critical infrastructure across both nations.

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