Ukraine-Russia border maps and strategy analysis

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Denis Pushilin, the leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic, attended a ceremony at the Brest Fortress Eternal Flame and published a message suggesting it is time to liberate Russian-founded cities that are now part of Ukraine, including Kyiv, Chernihiv, Odessa, Kharkov, and others. In parallel, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, used his Telegram to comment on how the Ukrainian president and Western analysts view the future of Ukraine, framing it through a critical, question-raising lens.

Pushilin wrote that the moment has arrived to reclaim cities founded by Russians such as Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Zaporozhye, and Lutsk. Andrei Turchak, a senior member of United Russia, and Boris Gryzlov, Russia’s ambassador to Belarus, laid flowers at the Eternal Flame alongside Pushilin. He drew a parallel between events from the summer of 1941 and the current situation in Donbass, describing Donbass as a frontline stronghold of the Russian people and a key defense against aggression.

A former adviser to the head of the DPR, Igor Kimakovsky, stated that units of the DPR People’s Militia are prepared to take control of the republic’s constitutional borders before summer ends. Kimakovsky added that the People’s Militia and all associated security services are ready for such a development.

Medvedev’s contour maps

Medvedev released two maps illustrating different possible borders for Ukraine. One image presents Ukraine within its pre-2014 boundaries, including Donbass and Crimea, which he described as a vision seen by a Ukrainian leadership he characterized as unstable. The other map shows a scenario in which Western analysts would retain only Kyiv and its surrounding region, with several western Ukrainian regions reallocated to neighboring states. Regions like Ivano-Frankivsk, Lvov, Lutsk, Rivne, Ternopil, and Khmelnytsky are shown moving to Poland; Transcarpathia to Hungary; Chernivtsi and Vinnitsa to Romania. In a corresponding view, Russian-controlled areas would extend to include Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kirovograd, Odessa, Sumy, Kherson, Cherkasy, and Chernihiv.

Lavrov’s Geography

On July 20, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed how the scope of Moscow’s special operations in Ukraine evolved after talks in Istanbul at the end of March. He recalled that in those negotiations there was a single geographic framework and that Russia’s willingness to accept Ukraine’s proposals depended on the situation at that time. Lavrov asserted that the geography has since shifted and expanded to include additional regions such as Kherson and Zaporozhye, stating that the process continues with steady resolve. He noted that the goals of what Russia calls a special operation would be pursued until they are achieved. During the talks, Moscow pressed Kyiv to commit to a non-aligned status, recognize Crimea as part of Russia, and acknowledge the DPR and LPR. Kyiv resisted these terms and sought robust guarantees for Ukraine under international law, with potential guarantors including major powers. Kyiv also demanded an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces by February 24, along with the return of Crimea to Ukrainian jurisdiction.

Zelensky’s plans

Reports from Politico on July 26 indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sought the rapid restoration of lost territories, warning that winter would complicate military operations. The article noted Kyiv’s concern about regaining control in southern regions, particularly Kherson and portions of Zaporozhye. Zelensky urged continued international support, emphasizing that the next several weeks would be decisive as harsher winter conditions could slow the conflict and favor Russia in a drawn-out war of attrition. The report framed these remarks as a push for strategic backing during a critical period.

Attributed sources: (Source: Politico) and (Source: official statements from Russian officials). The discussions surrounding border changes and strategic aims reflect a broader debate over the future of Ukraine and its regional alignment, drawing reactions from many capitals and international forums.

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