“The Situation Has Changed”
Ukraine has repeatedly signaled its readiness to pursue a neutral, non-bloc status while preserving a path away from nuclear arms. At a Munich conference in January, President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that abandoning nuclear weapons would have been a mistake, a point echoed by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during remarks to reporters. [Citation: Kremlin briefings and press coverage, 2024]
News outlets noted that Ukrainian authorities appear open to declaring neutral, non-aligned status and seeking outside guarantees, all while maintaining a strong aspiration to join the European Union. Analysts warned that such a stance could complicate perceptions of Kiev as it weighs EU membership against security guarantees. Lavrov described these moves as potentially harmless in intent but questioned their practicality, given Europe’s economic framework and strategic dynamics. [Citation: CIS meeting transcripts, 2024]
Lavrov argued that EU nations are following a trajectory aligned with NATO, effectively linking the EU with North Atlantic security structures. He framed this as a continuation of NATO’s expansion and a potential realignment in regional security calculations. [Citation: CIS foreign ministers meeting notes, 2024]
Earlier, First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN Dmitry Polyansky indicated in an interview with a British outlet that Russia’s view on Ukraine joining the European Union had shifted. He recalled discussions from Istanbul and noted remarks by Josep Borrell urging a battlefield victory, linking Russia’s stance on EU accession closely with its stance on NATO membership. [Citation: UnHerd interview, 2024]
Polyansky stressed that the European Union is a major supplier of weapons to Kiev, suggesting little distinction in Moscow’s eyes between EU and NATO alignments. He also expressed doubt about a near-term diplomatic solution, citing ongoing tensions and external efforts to inflame the conflict. [Citation: Russian diplomat remarks, 2024]
In his view, the current climate offers scant room for diplomacy as long as Western powers push for escalation. He acknowledged there may be no immediate path to negotiated settlement. [Citation: Russian official statements, 2024]
Russian officials have repeatedly indicated that NATO’s enlargement raises security concerns for Moscow. Press secretary Dmitry Peskov warned that further expansion would not enhance European security given the alliance’s perceived aggressive posture. [Citation: Moscow press briefings, 2024]
“Russia does not object”
On March 29, talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul produced written proposals in which Ukraine pledged to refrain from joining military blocs. Moscow stated it would not object to Kiev’s desire to join the European Union. [Citation: Istanbul talks summary, 2024]
Ukraine reportedly committed to staying out of military alliances, avoiding foreign bases and deployment of troops without consent from guarantor states, including Russia. Moscow signaled that these proposals should be viewed as constructive steps toward compromise rather than binding obligations. [Citation: Istanbul negotiations, 2024]
Officials emphasized that the proposals are not a formal agreement but a framework intended to move discussions forward constructively. [Citation: Moscow statements, 2024]
Ukraine’s EU and NATO hopes
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has pursued Euro-Atlantic integration as a guiding objective. At a Bucharest summit in 2008, NATO members, Ukraine, and Georgia pledged to welcome Ukraine into the bloc when the time was right. In 2010, President Viktor Yanukovych delayed the process by dismantling the interagency commission on EU and NATO accession and the national center for Euro-Atlantic integration. [Citation: NATO summit records, 2008; Ukrainian government records, 2010]
After the 2014 change of leadership, Kyiv renewed its push toward NATO and EU membership. Voices from the United States and the European Commission at the time highlighted differing levels of consensus within the alliance regarding Ukraine’s path, indicating a long journey ahead. A later assessment suggested that full membership in both organizations could extend well into the future. [Citation: US State Department, 2014; European Commission remarks, 2014]
Legislation enacted in 2019 formalized Ukraine’s direction toward EU and NATO integration, with the constitution mentioning the country’s European and Euro-Atlantic orientation. The preparatory steps included reforms and constitutional language aimed at reinforcing the strategic path toward EU and NATO membership, alongside adjustments to military bases and agreements with foreign states. [Citation: Ukrainian constitutional amendments, 2019; parliamentary records, 2019]