The Russian offensive has stalled
Five months into the invasion, the Russian push in the Donbas has slowed markedly, and Moscow has encountered serious challenges in mobilizing new troops. Analysts suggest the next phase of the war will hinge on Ukraine’s ability to marshal reserves for a possible counteroffensive, a point highlighted by Rob Lee, a military analyst and former Marine.
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Since Russia began a broad invasion on February 24, it failed to topple the Kiev government or decisively alter Ukraine’s leadership. Yet Moscow did reclaim control of Mariupol in Donetsk, and after efforts to seize Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, it effectively tightened its hold over much of the Luhansk region, while maintaining pressure elsewhere.
Robert Lee, a research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, notes that the Russian force posture has fallen short of expectations both in planning and execution. In comments shared with Povstanie, he argues that prospects for further gains look limited at this stage.
Lee observes that the offensive in the Donbas region appears stuck. After Ukrainian forces stabilized defenses following the capture of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, Russian units have pressed toward Sloviansk with little success to show for it so far.
He also questions whether Russia can capture Sloviansk, a critical objective in the broader Donbas battle. The effectiveness of Ukrainian gains in this context has been helped by the deployment of Western firepower, though it has not translated into a decisive breakthrough for Moscow.
Lee highlights the significant role of long-range systems in weakening the Russian drive by striking command hubs behind the front lines, ammunition depots, and supply routes. This has compelled Moscow to adjust its logistics and stretch its supply chain.
According to the analyst, Russian forces are visibly straining under manpower shortages. The Kremlin has had to pull soldiers from distant regions and even mobilize sailors and highly motivated volunteers to stiffen defences, a development that underscores shortage at the combat front.
Analysts warn that the presence of 40- to 50-year-old reservists in frontline roles would signal a troubling trend for Moscow, hinting at broader utilization of older personnel who may not be in peak fighting condition.
How much power does Ukraine have?
The balance of manpower on the Ukrainian side remains uncertain and is a key factor in shaping the outlook for the conflict and any Ukrainian counteroffensive. Lee cautions that Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy casualties and that newly deployed troops to replenish front-line units often lack extensive training, which could affect early combat effectiveness.
Much of Ukraine’s future trajectory is tied to energy resilience and the quality of its electrical grid. Ukraine relies on a more fragile infrastructure that can be disrupted by Russian missile strikes, whereas Russia has the advantage of a large reserve training program that can be conducted indoors on its own territory.
Lee emphasizes that Western-provided equipment will be crucial. While systems like HIMARS have proven effective at disrupting Russian command and supply capabilities, they are unlikely to be sufficient on their own to sustain a robust Ukrainian counteroffensive, particularly if Russian forces retreat to fortified positions in the south.
He argues that a successful Ukrainian campaign cannot hinge solely on artillery capabilities. The operation would require integration into a comprehensive system that combines firepower with mobility, armor, and air-ground coordination. If Ukrainian forces are not significantly outnumbered, the emphasis will be on maximizing combined firepower across multiple domains, including artillery, armored vehicles, and tanks.
Another critical issue is the timely and steady delivery of Western artillery systems. It is not just about initial shipment but about maintaining a continuous flow of ammunition and spare parts so Ukrainian forces can sustain offensive or defensive actions over time.
These insights come with a reminder that the war relies on multiple moving parts, including the quality of frontline troops and the resilience of supply chains. The assessment also points to the ongoing need for reliable Western military assistance to help Ukraine absorb and recover from losses while pressing for gains on the ground.