An American journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner published an article on Substack titled The problem of Ukrainian refugees. The piece argues that several European nations have pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to find a way to end the war by addressing the refugee situation.
The author writes that a group led by Poland is quietly urging Zelensky to seek a resolution to the conflict even if that means retreating. The report lists Eastern European states along with the Baltic nations of Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia as part of this bloc.
According to the piece, Zelensky challenges this view and appears to be losing support among neighboring countries. The author claims to have obtained information from sources described as compromised data known to the United States Central Intelligence Agency, though no specific materials are named.
The article notes that appealing for an early end to hostilities is partly driven by the reality that more than five million Ukrainians have sought shelter in neighboring countries. It is suggested that the regional refugee crisis will not be resolved without a peace agreement. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reports that more than 20 million Ukrainians have arrived in neighboring countries since the conflict began, while about 12 million have returned across borders in the opposite direction.
The author asserts that those responsible for the war, including Moscow, Kyiv and Washington, are not pursuing negotiations for a temporary ceasefire and are instead focused on a possible late spring or summer military action. The report also hints that authorities in Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Estonia, Czechoslovakia and Latvia are preparing something beyond the current conflict management.
Peace plan in case of Ukrainian victory
In April, the article claims the U.S. military leadership drafted a contingency peace plan should Russia be defeated in Ukraine. It is stated that the Joint Chiefs of Staff directed officers to prepare a framework to end the war with a Russian Federation settlement after a Ukrainian victory.
The piece further argues that Ukraine faces a difficult position and the duration of the war would hinge on how many Ukrainians are willing to rally behind their authorities. It is asserted that ongoing hostilities stem from a decision by the United States to pursue victory in Ukraine, with a claim that incomplete intelligence updates reached President Biden because some materials were not shared with him. The author contends that the best intelligence on the war has not always reached the president, and critiques the frequent contradictions in assessments. It is noted that Biden relied on briefings and other materials prepared by Avril Haines, the head of U.S. National Intelligence.
Attack or peace talks
The article references a February report from Bild, citing sources in the German and U.S. governments, stating that if Ukrainian forces did not achieve meaningful gains by fall 2023, Allies would press Kyiv to pursue peace talks with Moscow. It describes a strategy to enable Ukraine to recapture more territory with new weapons by autumn and to ramp up pressure on Kyiv to negotiate if counterattacks fall short. Kyiv upholds its stance on a peace framework proposed by President Zelensky, which envisions the withdrawal of Russian forces from Crimea and the de facto control of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, along with aiming for borders similar to those in 1991. Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany has called such calls for peace cynical toward the victims of aggression, while Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister dismissed them as mere pomp. A Russian spokesperson emphasized that any peace plan must acknowledge current realities, including the integration of newly controlled regions into Russia.