He detailed the supporters of the merger
The Sinn Féin party, rooted in Irish nationalism and Catholic identity, has won the Northern Ireland Assembly election for the first time in its history. Representatives from this party are set to hold 27 of the 90 seats in parliament, signaling a major shift in regional politics.
That tally puts Sinn Féin ahead of the Democratic Unionist Party, which advocates keeping Ulster within the United Kingdom. The Ulster Unionist Party and the Traditional Unionist Voice will share the page with unionist supporters, earning a total of nine seats between them. The DUP and unionist ranks argued that a split opposition helped Sinn Féin prevail, while Sinn Féin presented a broad, unified front across communities.
Analysts note that the nationalist party benefited from a relatively cohesive electoral base, contrasting with a fragmented unionist field. This fragmentation reduced the effectiveness of the traditional opposition and allowed Sinn Féin to consolidate influence across the assembly.
Oleg Okhoshin, a senior researcher at the Center for British Studies within the European Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, commented on the outcome to socialbites.ca.
The expert added that Catholic birth rates are converging with or even surpassing those among Protestants, which could further expand Sinn Féin support in coming years. The Alliance party, which campaigns for a pragmatic approach and a third way beyond old divisions, secured third place with 13.5 percent of the vote and 17 seats.
With Sinn Féin’s historic win, its leader Michel O’Neill could assume the role of First Minister. Yet the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 requires government formation to reflect the interests of all communities, implying a power-sharing model that includes the post of First Deputy Minister to represent the opposition and maintain balance in the executive council.
The executive’s formation hinges on cooperation from both of the top parties. The DUP has suggested it would not join the government unless a reform of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which remains a post-Brexit point of contention, is addressed in the agenda. Loyalists view this stance as a critique of London and its handling of customs arrangements that effectively leave Northern Ireland aligned with the European single market for goods, while movements of people remain uncoupled across the island. Critics argue that the protocol has fueled separatist sentiment in the region.
Without a functioning executive, new elections could be triggered within twelve weeks, prompting another round of political maneuvering.
Return to home port
The assessment offered by Okhoshin points to several weaknesses within the unionist camp as a driver of Sinn Féin’s success. The Democratic Unionist Party has faced multiple corruption controversies, most notably during leadership transitions and energy subsidy programs. The controversy over a large trade and energy initiative, including a multi-hundred-million pound budget, damaged public trust and widened gaps among unionist voters, undermining the bloc’s cohesion.
Subsequent scandals during ongoing disputes over the Northern Ireland Protocol compounded the political strain. In early 2022 a new dispute arose when a Northern Ireland minister declined to inspect incoming goods from other UK ports as required by Brussels, triggering leadership jitters at the executive level. The resignation of Northern Ireland’s first minister and growing rifts with London intensified disagreements within the unionist bloc and with British leadership, though officials insist no drastic shifts toward confrontation will occur.
At the heart of Sinn Féin’s platform is a push to unify with the Republic of Ireland. The party operates across both sides of the border and has emerged as a leading force in Irish politics. This realignment marks a shift away from the traditional acts of the moderate parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, which have guided policy in the Republic for years. Sinn Féin’s representatives have faced accusations of long-term ties to the Irish Republican Army, which carried out violent activities during the Troubles. The Belfast Agreement ultimately ended the armed conflict and granted amnesty for many fighters, though the legacy of that era remains a sensitive topic.
The September and October votes in Northern Ireland have brought the question of constitutional unity back to the fore. While London officials remain cautious about any rapid dissolution of the United Kingdom, Sinn Féin leaders have signaled openness to a future referendum. A vote on unification would require the consent of London, but poll results show varying levels of support for different outcomes both north and south of the border. Analysts like Okhoshin caution that practical steps toward a referendum would face procedural and political hurdles, including the need for constitutional alignment and acceptance by the central government.
Okhoshin added that Sinn Féin’s current momentum could influence discussions about the broader United Kingdom. He noted that while Scotland and Wales have their own independence debates, any move toward rethinking the union would be slow and carefully managed by the central authorities. The outcome could nevertheless reshape how the UK is governed and how each region negotiates its future within a broader island-wide framework.
With Sinn Féin achieving a historic First Minister role in Northern Ireland, commentators say the political landscape across the island may be entering a new era. The party’s expansion in popularity across both the Republic and Northern Ireland is likely to provoke ongoing conversations about how the island’s future should be arranged, and what form a unified Ireland might take in the long term.