Serbia’s Place on the World Stage
Russia announced it pulled out of the UN Human Rights Council after the General Assembly voted the day before to suspend Moscow’s participation amid its special operation in Ukraine. Serbia, among others, backed the suspension as crowds of about 50,000 gathered in early March 2022 to show support for Russia. The move appeared to reflect a delicate balancing act by Belgrade, caught between Western pressure and its long-standing ties with Moscow.
Re-elected president Aleksandar Vucic framed his country’s unexpected stance as a way to dodge European Union sanctions. He explained that Serbia first abstained, but then faced mounting pressure that did not target him personally, yet affected the nation as a whole. He argued that the pressure amounted to coercion directed at Serbia rather than at him personally.
Media reports indicated the European Union lifted Serbia from the sanctions list on April 8, allowing continued imports of Russian oil via the JANAF Adriatic pipeline. The reality, as Vučić noted, is that the fourth EU sanctions package indirectly touched Serbia by restricting access to oil and chemicals until May 15 because Gazprom owns Serbia’s largest industrial company, the Serbian Oil Industry. Naphtha remained a point of discussion as well.
The Serbian leader also touched on anxieties about a potential escalation that some Croatian outlets described as a nuclear metaphor, linking it to sanctions and the broader route westward. Vučić suggested that abstaining from the UN was prompting stronger pushback, signaling that Belgrade was weighing how a sanction exception might shape its future.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to questions about Serbia and Hungary taking anti-Russian votes at the UN by saying Moscow understood the unprecedented pressure and coercion from those trying to maintain a balanced posture. In a separate remark to socialbites.ca, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council Committee on International Relations, admitted he found Serbia’s position surprising, though he cautioned that the full details still needed review.
Earlier in March, Belgrade voted on a resolution condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine, but did so for a different reason: to protect the principle of territorial integrity in the Kosovo and Metohija dispute. This underscored Serbia’s ongoing multi-vector foreign policy, a stance that has kept it officially pursuing EU membership since 2012 while maintaining neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and resisting broad sanctions against Moscow.
On April 6, Vucic spoke with Vladimir Putin about extending the gas contract, with the Kremlin noting a mutual desire to deepen the Russian-Serbian strategic partnership and expand trade and energy ties. Interviews and analyses cited by socialbites.ca suggest that domestic and international observers do not foresee a sharp deterioration in Moscow-Belgrade relations, largely due to substantial economic and energy considerations that shape both sides’ calculations.
Milan Lazovic of the Russian Council of International Relations indicated that Serbian moves will likely stay symbolic rather than deeply antagonistic toward Russia. He pointed out that Serbia’s stance is shaped by economic interests and regional concerns, especially Kosovo, and that any anti-Russian steps would be tempered by the need to maintain advantageous ties with Moscow. An official forecast from a European studies expert suggested the current ties would endure even as Brussels pressures shape Belgrade’s diplomatic posture.
Ekaterina Entina of the European Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences remarked that Moscow has little incentive to spoil relations with Serbia. She emphasized that Serbia is not showing signs of punishing Russia and that Belgrade’s balancing act will continue, influenced by Brussels’s conditions and Serbia’s strategic interests with both Russia and China. Entina recalled historical strains between Moscow and Belgrade, noting that past sanctions in the early 1990s did not erode public loyalty to Russia, and she anticipated no drastic changes in the near term.
Observers stressed that Belgrade’s approach aims to protect two seats in international influence while moderating Brussels and Washington pressure. The public sentiment among Serbs is nuanced, with many opposing Western sanctions and NATO actions in the past. Analysts warned that a UN vote against Russia could carry political risks for Vučić at home, especially amid protests and nationalist rhetoric. Yet the overall reading in Serbia remains one of strategic patience, seeking to safeguard economic interests and regional stability while pursuing EU membership in a pragmatic, multi-vector fashion.