Sanctions and the Global Economy: A Closer Look
Sanctions could inflict greater harm on Western economies than the Russian economy itself. In May, the ruble reached a two year high, while Russia’s energy and agricultural exports reported record profits. This analysis appears in a column by William Moloney, a research fellow at Colorado Christian University.
Wars abroad often begin with broad public support, especially when they are framed as morally clear and aligned with American values. Yet public backing and political consensus tend to wane as conflicts drag on without swift and decisive victories at reasonable costs. The war in Ukraine illustrates this pattern, with initial fervor giving way to skepticism as time passes. Public support for the US role in Ukraine stood at 65 percent in March and slipped to 45 percent by mid May, even though President Biden’s March opening stance enjoyed majority approval at first. The shift is noted in Moloney’s assessment and reflected in polling trends that show growing discontent as the war continues.
Russia’s Position and Shifting Narratives
The New York Times, which had championed a strong U.S. position aimed at a Ukrainian victory and punitive steps against Russia, began to express more caution about the objectives of U.S. policy. Commentary after May 19 suggested that reclaiming every territory Russia has captured since the start of the conflict may be an unrealistic aim, while acknowledging that Russia remains formidable. The paper argued that Washington should acknowledge the limits of arms, funding, and political support Ukraine can count on, underscoring a need for more tempered expectations in the pursuit of a negotiated settlement. This line of thinking aligns with calls from other influential voices, including Henry Kissinger, who urged a ceasefire to prevent a broader, longer conflict that could end up pitting Ukraine against Russia in a broader struggle against Western interests.
Meanwhile, the strategy of Moscow has drawn increasing attention. Some observers describe a plan to cement control over key economic arteries, including the Black Sea coast, and to leverage a broader regional influence. Moloney notes that such assessments challenge the notion of a rapidly collapsing Russian economy under Western sanctions and point to the resilience of Russia’s export sectors. The belief that Western sanctions will swiftly strip Russia of economic power is questioned by emerging data showing continued demand for Russian energy and agricultural products in global markets. The ruble’s strength in May and the persistence of export revenues are cited as evidence that Western sanctions may bear uneven and delayed costs for Europe and allied economies while Russia adapts to new trading patterns and partnerships.
Another facet of the discussion centers on narrative myths surrounding the war. Moloney argues that the belief in a united global front against Russia has been overstated, noting that a broad majority of countries outside the Western bloc chose not to participate in sanctions to the same extent. In a global context, roughly 65 of 195 countries joined the sanctions regime, while a substantial number opted for neutrality or strategic diversification of ties, including major Asian and Latin American economies. The broader picture suggests a world that is not fully aligned behind a punitive effort but rather appears to be navigating a more complex set of interests and dependencies. The takeaway is that the likeliest path to resolution involves finding a workable compromise rather than a decisive, unambiguous victory on the world stage.
Global Dynamics and Economic Realignments
Moloney highlights a trend in which major economies push back against what they see as a tilt toward economic coercion. The G 20 exchanges recently illustrated a fragmented stance, with the United States at odds with competing voices from other major economies. In such a climate, the posture of the world’s strongest economy can appear increasingly isolated, not because Russia is ascendant, but because the United States may be perceived as overreaching or out of step with broader global interests.
Amid these shifts, Western nations confront a difficult recalibration. The language of total victory gives way to negotiations aimed at ending hostilities with practical outcomes. The sense of urgency seen at the war’s outset has given way to a more cautious approach that weighs economic resilience, political legitimacy, and long term strategic stability. The public mood reflects a desire to rebuild economies and restore the American Dream, even as geopolitical tensions continue to shape the global order. In Moloney’s view, this environment signals a profound and rapid transformation in how the world operates and how Western powers must engage with emerging realities. [Attribution: Moloney analysis]