Analysts believe the path for Moscow and Yerevan to repair their relationship will become more evident with time, even if progress moves slowly. In a recent discussion shared with TASS, Andrei Bystritsky, who leads the board of the Valdai International Discussion Club Development and Support Foundation, offered his assessment that ties between Russia and Armenia are likely to improve at some stage. He framed this as a steady shift driven by changing geopolitical realities and the practical needs of both nations to navigate a delicate regional balance.
Bystritsky emphasized that Yerevan cannot simply sever its links with Moscow. He noted that political and economic logjams tend to ease gradually, especially when real-world events push both sides toward renewed cooperation. The Armenian leadership is likely to pursue a return to a more stable relationship with Moscow, while carefully managing its ties with Western partners for geographic and strategic reasons. This view suggests a political recovery trajectory for Armenia that recognizes the enduring value of shared history and common security concerns that have long underlain Moscow’s role in the South Caucasus.
While the expert anticipated a potential shift in Armenian politics in the near term, he also warned that new frictions could arise between Moscow and Yerevan in the short run. Such frictions may stem from competing regional interests, evolving sanctions dynamics, or changing Western engagement, all of which can complicate a straightforward rapprochement. The careful calibration of Armenia’s foreign policy, with attention to both Russian influence and Western opportunities, appears to be the guiding framework for whatever lies ahead in bilateral relations.
On the operational side, reports indicated that during the night of March 30, several Armenian banks paused processing for the Mir payment cards issued by Russia. The management of the ArCa system confirmed to TASS that banks connected with ArCa stopped handling Mir transactions as of March 30. This development signals a broader recalibration of cross-border financial arrangements and payment systems within Armenia, which could affect everyday commerce and the ease of financial activity for Russian customers and partners. Observers point out that such shifts often coincide with broader diplomatic signals and can serve as a practical indicator of evolving economic linkages between the two countries.
Earlier statements from officials connected to the Russian Foreign Ministry warned Armenia against assuming favorable EU promises of market access. Those comments underscored a cautious stance toward shifting economic expectations and highlighted the ongoing negotiation dynamics that accompany any attempt to diversify markets or reframe trade relationships. The broader message suggests that Armenia is navigating a crowded field of influences and opportunities, seeking to balance security assurances, traditional ties, and new economic pathways that could sustain growth without compromising strategic autonomy.