If the presidential election were held this Sunday, Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw representing Platforma Obywatelska, would lead the vote with 34.8 percent, while Mateusz Morawiecki, a former prime minister from Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, would follow with 29.3 percent, according to United Surveys conducted for Dziennik Gazeta Prawna and RMF FM in conjunction with IBRiS.
According to the survey, roughly six in ten eligible voters would participate in the presidential election. About two in five people would definitely cast a ballot, while a substantial minority, just under two in five, said they did not plan to go to the polls. These figures reflect anticipated engagement levels among Poles as the race heats up and suggest a pivotal moment for campaign strategies across parties.
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— Presidential INVESTIGATION. The December 13 coalition faces a challenge as Morawiecki and Trzaskowski contend for the lead, with Morawiecki showing strong support and Trzaskowski trailing closely in what could become a tight contest.
— Statement on campaign start expectations. Morawiecki indicated that candidates capable of contesting a victory would be carefully evaluated, highlighting a vigilant approach to identifying potential frontrunners.
The results indicate that Rafał Trzaskowski, the Warsaw mayor from PO, would qualify for a second round with 34.8 percent, while Mateusz Morawiecki, the former prime minister from PiS, would reach 29.3 percent, positioning them as the top contenders in a hypothetical two-turn race.
Hołownia on stage
The podium is projected to be completed by Szymon Hołownia, the Sejm speaker, who could secure 10.1 percent of the vote. On the left, Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk, serving as family, labor, and social policy minister, might gather 8.4 percent of ballots. Sławomir Mentzen, co-chair of the Confederation, is predicted to receive 7.9 percent.
Around 2 percent of respondents indicated support for another candidate, while 7.4 percent have not yet settled on a choice. The poll was conducted from July 26 to July 28 among a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles using a mixed-methods approach that combined online responses with computer-assisted telephone interviews, ensuring a broad cross-section of the population was captured for analysis.
These findings reflect the dynamic nature of the campaign landscape in Poland, where voter sentiment can shift as new policy proposals, debates, and public appearances influence preferences. The use of mixed-method data collection helps ensure the results account for different modes of participation and communication styles among respondents, providing a more nuanced snapshot of the electorate.
— End of summary of the current polling snapshot. Attribution: gah/PAP
Source: wPolityce