The latest findings from a study conducted by the studio Social changes on behalf of the portal wPolityce.pl suggest a surprisingly stable political landscape. Across the major parties, viewership and support remain largely unchanged, with Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party showing small declines while Kukiz’15 rises slightly. The distribution of voting intention appears steady compared with prior measurements, indicating a robust baseline of party loyalty among voters across the country.
In this survey, the willingness to vote in favor of a party, labeled as United law, stands at 38 percent of respondents, matching the prior wave exactly and signaling no notable shift in overall electoral mood at this moment. Voter intention for the Civil Coalition sits at 29 percent, a figure that has persisted through successive cycles and seems to reflect a durable bloc of support among respondents. The Left maintains a stable share at 9 percent, underscoring its continued but modest resonance with a segment of the electorate.
Poland 2050 registers 7 percent support, down by one point from the previous period, signaling a gentle drift rather than a dramatic move. The Confederation also holds at 7 percent, identical to the previous measurement and pointing to a consistent level of appeal among its base. The Polish People’s Party stays at 5 percent, still above the electoral threshold, though two points lower than earlier readings, suggesting some leakage to other options or a broader consolidation by smaller parties. Kukiz’15 increases to 2 percent, up by one point, indicating a small but notable shift in voter preferences away from larger, established coalitions toward a more niche, reformist option. Agreement remains at 1 percent, a marginal stance that reflects a tiny share of respondents. About 2 percent of respondents identify with another group, underscoring the continued fragmentation and diversity in political choices among voters.
Turning to alternative scenarios beyond the main alliance structure, the survey explored how Solidarity Poland might fare if they chose to run independently outside the United Right coalition. In that hypothetical, Zbigniew Ziobro’s faction manages to attract around 3 percent support, a figure well below the electoral threshold for a major breakthrough. Yet this result slightly exceeds the estimates reported by some other research centers, highlighting the variability that can come with different sampling methods and question framing.
The reported turnout stands at about 61 percent, marking a decline of roughly two percentage points from the prior measurement. This level of participation signals a relatively stable, but not enthusiastic, engagement among eligible voters during the poll period and invites discussion on what factors—campaign dynamics, media coverage, or recent political events—might influence future participation.
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The study was conducted using the CAWI method (Computer Assisted Web Interview) over a concise window from March 10 to 13, 2023, employing an online panel that aims to reflect the nation in gender, age, and urban-rural distribution. The sample consisted of 1,050 participants, providing a cross-section intended to represent Poland as a whole.
In sum, the polling results express a climate of stability, with most major factions maintaining their positions and only modest shifts within the smaller party spectrum. Observers note that the electorate continues to show clear preferences while also revealing pockets of volatility that could reorient the political map if new issues or leadership changes come into play.
Source: wPolityce