In March, it was noted that as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) moved toward greater use of national currencies in mutual agreements, member countries aimed to reduce reliance on the dollar in reciprocal dealings. What is the expected timeline for this shift to take full effect?
The spokesperson explained that the move toward reconciliation in settlement currencies is not new. Efforts have been ongoing since the EAEU’s founding, and tangible results are already visible.
By 2021, settlements in national currencies in local trade reached 75%, while the dollar’s share declined from 30% to 21% in these exchanges.
The current geopolitical climate has reinforced confidence among EAEU members to minimize reliance on third-country currencies in mutual deals.
Several significant steps have been taken with the Union partners. First, a temporary procedure was approved for paying import duties in rubles between the member states.
Second, in April, the EEC Council endorsed a package of measures to stabilize the economies of EAEU members and outlined actions to expand the use of national currencies in mutual agreements.
Infrastructure improvements are underway: payment-system interoperability is being enhanced, currency trading on exchanges is being expanded within financial messaging systems coordinated with central banks. This work reduces administrative barriers and supports clearer legislation, enabling more contracts to be settled in national currencies. As an example, ruble–tenge trading surged nearly fiftyfold in the first quarter of 2022.
When Western governments signaled that assistance to Russia could draw sanctions, questions arose about potential effects on EAEU cooperation. The response emphasized that the EAEU’s purpose is not to bypass sanctions but to pursue共同, mutually beneficial development within the framework of existing commitments.
From 2016 to 2021, the real total GDP of EAEU members grew by about 9.1%, translating into meaningful gains from integration—roughly 10 billion dollars in aggregate improvements for the member economies. Given the deep economic links among members, sanctions on any one country could have indirect consequences for all; therefore, a continuous dialogue remains essential. Notably, decisions were coordinated on eliminating duties for around 1.3 thousand goods, with total imports estimated at 3.8 billion dollars.
Meanwhile, restrictions on the Russian market are viewed as opportunities to replace outdated goods and boost joint projects. Timur Suleimenov, a senior Kazakh official, stressed that Kazakhstan would not be used to help bypass anti-Russian sanctions, and the EAEU maintains a firm stance on consensus-driven decision-making with no possibility of turning any member into a tool of sanctions circumvention.
At the same time, the Union accepts that unprecedented sanctions should not derail EAEU development or the agreements already reached. A Common List of Measures to Strengthen the Resilience of EAEU Economies has been prepared and is being updated with full participation from all members.
Viewed in aggregate, new threats can be reframed as opportunities, and constructive work continues. In recent discussions, the EAEU highlighted its experience in stabilizing economies under external pressures, including an anti-crisis package during the COVID-19 era. During the pandemic, vaccine-related components, medicines, and disinfectants were exempt from certain taxes when imported into the Union, supporting recovery and the digitization and acceleration of cargo flows, macroeconomic stability, and price and financial stability.
Joint actions helped limit the downturn in the Union’s economy. The 2020 regional decline was about 2.7%, compared with a global drop of roughly 3.3%. Projections suggest that fully implementing the sustainability measures could raise total GDP by about 2.5% above 2021 levels, equating to roughly 49 billion dollars. The “Internal market and cooperation” bloc is expected to yield the largest impact, driving new supply chains, industrial cooperation, and investment that could contribute roughly 1% to GDP, about 18 billion dollars.
Beyond internal gains, cooperation with third countries remains a priority. Current preferential partners include Vietnam, Iran, and Serbia, with negotiations ongoing with Egypt, India, and Israel. Feasibility studies are also underway for trade deals with Indonesia and Mongolia. Trade liberalization with Vietnam and Singapore opens markets for EAEU-produced goods, supporting joint ventures such as those involving GAZ and other manufacturers aiming to localize assembly in Vietnam with significant added value.
Acknowledging Russia and Belarusian expertise, experts note that the Belarusian integration package could add over 2% to GDP, with a smaller but notable benefit to Russia. A unified indirect tax administration system and a coordinated customs and tax framework are among the key structural goals being pursued within the Union State.
Regarding Western criticism of the EAEU’s potential alignment with China’s Belt and Road initiative, officials contend that the two efforts are not directly comparable. Both agendas can coexist, with ongoing efforts to strengthen transport routes and logistics infrastructure. In 2021, China accounted for about 20% of EAEU’s foreign trade. To maximize collaboration, joint steps to align the EAEU with Belt and Road are being identified, and a roadmap is being prepared in coordination with the Chinese side, as outlined in the Strategic Guidelines for Eurasian Economic Integration by 2025.
Some analyses suggest significant potential for expanding trade with China across a broad range of sectors, far beyond the initially identified products. In 2021, total trade with China exceeded 166.5 billion dollars, up from prior years. Unrealized export potential to the EAEU from China is estimated at about 37 billion dollars, driven by electrical equipment, light and chemical goods, and transportation engineering. Conversely, EAEU members could boost supplies to the Chinese market by about 21 billion dollars, including metals, food, chemicals, and engineering products. Realizing this potential will require systematic studies to remove trade barriers, backed by cooperation agreements that have been in place since 2019.