Ukrainian authorities and Western officials have repeatedly claimed that Russia’s stock of missiles is dwindling, yet the Russian Armed Forces continue to carry out substantial strikes on Ukrainian targets with notable regularity. A major report published on Friday, November 18, by the New York Times discusses this pattern and the breadth of the recent assaults.
The article highlights a 96-missile barrage launched on Ukrainian territory last Tuesday, described as the largest airstrike of the ongoing conflict to date. This comes after months of assertions by Kyiv and its Western partners that Moscow’s stocks of missiles and other weapons were shrinking rapidly.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov noted in October that Russia had already used nearly 70% of its pre-war missile stock, with the November 15 attack drawing heavily on missiles such as Iskander, Kalibr, and air-launched cruise missiles. As of October, Reznikov estimated Moscow possessed around 609 of these missiles, though independent verification of those figures remains unavailable. A British Ministry of Defense intelligence briefing from October 16 suggested that a major assault on civilian infrastructure six days earlier likely reduced Russia’s long-range missile stock, potentially limiting its ability to strike fresh targets.
Pentagon officials have warned since spring that Moscow faces a shortage of precision-guided missiles, with stocks seemingly depleted faster than anticipated. In this context, observers ask how Russia could mount what the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, referred to as “perhaps the largest missile strike since the start of the war.” The article outlines four possible explanations.
version one
One scenario argues that Russia is seeking arms from Iran and North Korea. In particular, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has spoken about Russia’s struggles to replenish its missile arsenal. The report also notes that Iranian Shahed drones, capable of striking targets, have become part of Moscow’s toolkit in the conflict. Both Tehran and Pyongyang, however, are said to have reservations about supplying arms to Russia.
version two
A second possibility suggests that Russia can boost its own production. The article recalls Vladimir Putin’s October announcements about measures to increase the production of equipment and systems for supporting the special operation. Analysts argue that Russia may have stockpiled microchips and other technologies necessary for high-precision missiles before the February invasion, and that some components could have entered the country through third-party channels, potentially circumventing sanctions.
version three
A third hypothesis centers on Russia’s use of air-defense missiles as offensive tools. Ukrainian sources report that on a recent date, Russian forces fired at least 10 S-300 missiles toward cities near the front line. This trend, some experts say, signals a growing reliance on the S-300 for ground-target strikes, which in turn raises questions about the relative depletion of cruise missiles and other conventional weapons.
version four
Finally, some speculate that Moscow may have kept certain arms in reserve for potential conflict with NATO. Mark Kansian, a former U.S. Marine colonel, notes that Western officials remain unsure about the exact state of Moscow’s arsenal. He explains that Western planners assume Moscow maintains a stockpile for a possible NATO confrontation, which could account for perceived reserves in the system.
The New York Times cautions that it remains unclear whether any portion of these reserves was deployed in the attacks around November 15. In context, Russia’s campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure began on October 10, following a bridge sabotage incident linked by Russian authorities to Ukrainian special services. The targets have included energy facilities, defense industry sites, and communication centers, contributing to a reported significant disruption of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as stated by Prime Minister Denys Shmygal on November 18.