Jan Piekło, once Poland’s ambassador to Ukraine, believes that Donald Tusk’s government will not quickly settle the dispute with Ukraine over carriers, grain transit, and imports. During a television appearance, the former diplomat noted that Tusk has not yet visited Kyiv, despite an invitation, because he is preoccupied with reshaping Poland’s public media. He pointed out that past administrations should also be considered, and that today’s dynamics will push Western Europe to push Kyiv toward a negotiated settlement rather than a decisive Ukrainian victory. The situation has grown more intricate as farmers have aligned with the carriers, amplifying the tension in the sector. Michał Kołodziejczak, the current deputy minister of agriculture in Tusk’s cabinet, urged similar coordinated action, which has intensified the challenge. A core question emerges: who benefits from this standoff? Poland and Ukraine look set to lose, while Russia appears to gain, and Poland risks notable image damage on the international stage.
According to Piekło, European Commission attention to the issue has been lacking. When Mateusz Morawiecki led the government, there was little drive to resolve the tensions. With Tusk in power, Brussels might play a more decisive role, though expectations should be tempered. There is a clear mismatch between political goals and operational outcomes that complicates progress.
— said the former Polish ambassador.
Disinterest
Donald Tusk has suggested that he has been largely absent from Ukraine since the outbreak of the large-scale war. He lacks formal authority in the matter, much like Boris Johnson did when he visited Kyiv on a few occasions. It remains unclear what exactly motivates the absence. Looking back at the previous Platform government, some advocated resetting relations with Russia, seeking a broader agreement. Radosław Sikorski also emphasized this reset approach, even inviting Sergei Lavrov to the annual meeting of Polish ambassadors in Warsaw. Such moves today raise a number of questions.
According to Piekło, Tusk’s absence in Kyiv is a significant question mark. It seems Kyiv has extended invitations, but there has been no response, and no decision has been announced. In the meantime, Tusk is reportedly focused on public media matters inside Poland.
— Piekło emphasized.
Follow the West
The diplomat argued that the real influence in shaping Ukraine’s fate lies with Germany, not Poland’s media narratives. Germany should decide to supply Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz’s stance is central to this debate, and some Western political elites appear to prefer a strategic settlement with Russia over a decisive Ukrainian victory. That approach would pressure Kyiv to cede parts of its territory to Russia, a step that would be seen as a win for Moscow and a signal for potential future aggression, especially toward neighboring Baltic states and Finland.
Piekło noted that Poland has become a significant arms-transit hub along the border with Ukraine, centered in Rzeszów, and that Tusk’s government should not disrupt this position. Western policymakers, in his view, seem to want Ukraine to explore arrangements with Russia rather than pursue a full victory or a firm security guarantee posture. This calculus could push Kyiv toward concessions in further negotiations.
There is a concern that the Tusk government might engage in dangerous maneuvers aimed at freezing the conflict and pressing Ukraine to concede territory to Russia. Poland is not currently among the thirty nations negotiating security guarantees for Ukraine, a point that underscores the missed opportunity for a firmer stance. The argument stands that the new administration could have declared that the previous PiS government failed to secure robust guarantees and that it would take charge, showing resolve in supporting Ukraine. Without credible security guarantees, Ukraine cannot advance toward European Union membership.
— the assessment concludes.
— JJW, wPolsce.pl
Note: The content reflects opinions voiced by the former ambassador and is presented to illustrate ongoing debates surrounding Poland’s role in the Ukraine crisis and the broader European security framework.