A recent survey conducted for a major news outlet by a public opinion research institute explored how Confederation supporters would cast their ballots if the second round of the presidential election pitted PiS and the governing coalition against potential rivals. The poll found that a notable portion of Confederation backers would choose Mateusz Morawiecki, with other candidates also earning shares of support. The exercise sought to project voter behavior under a hypothetical run-off scenario and to understand how the Confederation base might realign its preferences across the field of contenders.
In detailing the survey, the commission tasked with the project asked voters to imagine a hypothetical second-round contest between PiS and the governing coalition’s nominees and to indicate whom they would vote for. The aim was to capture the specific leanings of Confederation voters and to compare their preferences with other prominent figures in Polish politics.
Additional reading materials and related analyses have been published by news outlets and polling organizations to offer broader context on nomination dynamics and potential cross-endorsement patterns in the run-off phase.
The findings show Mateusz Morawiecki as the leading preference among Confederation voters, followed by several other national figures who would attract smaller but still meaningful shares of support. The distribution highlights how a candidate perceived as a steady, high-profile executive could energize a segment of Confederation supporters in a second-round contest.
Among the listed contenders, Morawiecki received a standout portion of support, while Szymon Hołownia, Mariusz Blaszczak, Rafał Trzaskowski, and Beata Szydło each attracted their own shares. Smaller fractions were cited for Tobiasz Bocheński and Radosław Sikorski, with Karol Nawrocki drawing a minor vote share. A fraction of respondents indicated support for Donald Tusk in this hypothetical matchup, and a portion of Confederation voters chose other politicians beyond the named options.
The survey was conducted in early August on a sample of just over one thousand adult residents. The results reflect attitudes at that moment among Confederation supporters when faced with a second-round decision and illustrate the potential shifts in alliances that could occur as campaigns evolve.
These insights are used to understand the possible electoral dynamics and to gauge how Confederation voters might respond to different presidential candidates in a second-round scenario. They also offer a snapshot of political sentiment that parties and analysts monitor when evaluating campaign strategies and messaging approaches across the country.
Attribution for the data comes from the polling institute commissioned by the reporting outlet, with coverage and interpretation provided by the commissioning media organization. The information is intended to inform readers about current voting intentions and does not represent a final forecast of the election outcome.
Source: Polling institute data cited by media partners in coverage of the run-off scenarios.