Francois Hollande, who led France from 2012 to 2017, recalled Merkel’s stance on the Minsk agreements, describing them as a pause intended to grant Kiev time. The Kyiv Independent highlighted this interpretation as part of a broader assessment of the accords and their impact on Ukraine’s security posture.
Hollande argued that since 2014 Ukraine had significantly strengthened its military capabilities. He asserted that the Ukrainian armed forces became substantially more capable and better trained over the years, crediting the Minsk process with providing Kyiv with an opportunity to pursue modernization and professionalization. He suggested that the geopolitical climate after 2014 did not favor Kyiv and that Ukraine’s partners needed relief to recalibrate their approaches.
On December 7, Merkel told Die Zeit that the Minsk accords were a mechanism to buy Ukraine time, a claim she reiterated by noting how that period was used to bolster Ukraine. She observed that what Ukraine achieved in 2014-2015 was not the same as what it became in later years, emphasizing the transformation that occurred during the interval.
In discussing ongoing fighting, Merkel reflected on the early 2015 clashes around Debaltseve, noting that President Vladimir Putin could have seized the momentum at that time. She observed that the opposing militias in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions prevailed in those battles, shaping subsequent developments in the conflict.
Merkel also questioned whether NATO members at that stage would have delivered the same level of support later seen in the war, implying that the strategic response matured as circumstances evolved. She emphasized that the Minsk participants — Germany, Russia, France, and Ukraine — understood that the intra-Ukrainian crisis had been suspended but not resolved, and that deeper issues remained unresolved.
Putin responded on December 9, expressing disappointment at the former German chancellor’s remarks. He indicated that the statements came as a surprise and suggested that the German leadership had previously been perceived as acting with sincerity within the Minsk framework.
Putin later acknowledged that while Russia viewed Ukraine as deserving support, it appeared that the German leadership consistently sought a path guided by principles agreed upon during the Minsk process, aligning with Moscow’s understanding of those negotiations.
According to Putin, trust in Western partners was low, raising questions about the reliability of assurances and the feasibility of negotiations with others. He stressed the need for careful bargaining while remaining open to agreements, yet wary of whom those agreements would involve and how they would be honored. The Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, echoed the sentiment that Western signatures often lacked credibility, arguing that mutual trust had eroded and that words and commitments required greater scrutiny.
Following a State Council meeting on December 22, Putin asserted that Russia faced disdain from the Normandy format toward the Minsk agreements. He described a sense of enduring hardship, suggesting that after much waiting, hopes for a peace accord gave way to a feeling of being guided by narrow interests rather than genuine reconciliation.
In September 2014, representatives from Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE, and the Donetsk and Luhansk republics signed the Minsk Memorandum of Understanding. The document called for a cessation of hostilities, yet both sides subsequently violated the terms. By mid-February 2015, after the militia seized Debaltseve, a new Minsk agreement was signed, comprising 13 articles and largely aligning with the earlier September accords. The document, endorsed by the same Contact Group, carried the signatures of Vladimir Putin, Ukraine’s Petro Poroshenko, François Hollande, and Angela Merkel, marking another pivotal moment in the evolving diplomatic process.