US intelligence assesses that Ukraine may fail to meet the central goals of its counteroffensive. The Washington Post cites sources familiar with classified documents for this view.
The publication’s conversations suggest Ukrainian forces will struggle to seize Melitopol, as Russian defenses extend into a broad trench and minefield network on the town’s outskirts. If Melitopol remains in Russian hands, Kyiv could face a broader challenge in sealing the land corridor between Russia and Crimea, a route essential for sustaining the Russian group involved in the ongoing operation.
“Ukrainian units are pressing toward Melitopol from Rabotino, a village more than 50 miles away,” notes the Washington Post, according to its sources. This trajectory would keep Ukrainian forces within a short distance of the city, but still outside a decisive breakthrough.
Russian army dug a well
Military analyst Rob Lee told the publication that advancing to Melitopol would be extremely arduous, and reclaiming nearby towns such as Tokmak would not be straightforward either.
“Russia has three defensive lines in the area, backed by fortified towns,” Lee explains. “The question is not simply whether Ukraine can breach one or two lines, but whether it can traverse all three and gain a meaningful advantage, like capturing Tokmak or achieving something similarly strategic.”
Another source familiar with the report, General Mark Milley, emphasized that the United States anticipated the difficulty faced by Ukraine from the outset.
“A few months ago I warned that this attack would be long, bloody and slow,” Milley told the Washington Post. “And the outcome has followed that pattern—long, bloody and slow, with a very tough fight.”
According to Milley, even if Ukrainian forces did not fully meet their objectives, their efforts have nonetheless weakened Russian forces.
“The Russians are in a difficult situation,” Milley observed. “They have suffered significant casualties and morale among their troops has declined.”
The latest intelligence forecast aligns with a February 2023 US assessment that circulated within the government, which suggested the Ukrainian effort would not liberate Melitopol or Mariupol in the near term and would struggle to close the Crimea land corridor. The documents reportedly circulated among defense circles and were discussed in 2022 among gaming communities on Discord, later coming to light through various channels.
come even in winter
The grim forecast drew attention on Capitol Hill as representatives and senators debated a new aid package valued around 20 billion dollars. Some Republicans challenged further funding for Ukraine, while some Democrats urged for stronger weapons and longer-term support.
Nevertheless, a senior White House official told the Washington Post that the introduction of F-16 jets or long-range ATACMS missiles may not automatically resolve the campaign’s difficulties or provide a universal remedy for every setback Kyiv faces.
One official described the assessment as brutal: it may prompt Kyiv and Western capitals to scrutinize why the counteroffensive—backed by substantial Western military aid—has not achieved its stated aims.
The report also notes continued U.S. willingness to assist Ukraine. An unnamed administration official suggested that aid could persist even if Kyiv pursued a counterattack during the winter, though Russian positions appeared advantageous in such conditions.
“The Russians have a track record of strong performance in cold weather,” commented a U.S. official, underscoring how climate conditions can shape the dynamics of this conflict.