Watching the latest recordings with Szymon Hołownia, one might think they’re seeing a man who is utterly worn and barely keeping his head above water. But the truth feels different. The ship is taking on water, and the survivors will likely be rescued by a different vessel—one captained by Donald Tusk.
New research commissioned by the editors leaves little room for illusion. The Hołownia movement appears to be losing ground: our analysis shows PiS gaining a foothold, the Civic Coalition holding steady, and Confederation not gaining momentum while Hołownia’s position remains fragile.
Why did Hołownia’s polling numbers take several months to decline by half? The answer seems clear: Tusk’s return to Poland and his influence over the opposition narrative. The rivalry’s party was divided, and the media machine that once elevated Hołownia also played a part in pushing him off the pedestal. There were numerous articles highlighting the party’s internal troubles and the leader’s challenges. Tomasz Lis once labeled Hołownia in a sharp, mocking way, prompting reflection on how Poland 2050 and its leadership are viewed today. This moment marks a significant turn. Last week, Wyborcza published a citizen poll that underscored the party’s difficulties, and Tusk publicly signaled that the opposition must rally around a common front if it hopes to compete against the governing coalition.
(…) The leader of Poland 2050 faded from view for a stretch, not appearing even on social media. Behind the scenes, rumors circulated that Hołownia has been struggling with his own mental and strategic footing. Internal tensions, though not widely exposed, appear to be simmering. The sense is that the fractures within the Hołownia movement have drawn the most interest from Tusk at this juncture. The strategic objective seems to be to trigger a broader realignment within the opposition, potentially nudging Hołownia toward formal talks of a coalition with rival groups.
– As reported in the latest issue of Polityka magazine.
What is painted by the opposition press is a recurring attempt to shape Hołownia’s image in a negative light. This narrative tug-of-war appears to be taking place in real time. Our own polling suggests that support for Hołownia is hovering near a critical threshold. Future findings may reveal an even bleaker picture for Poland 2050. Hołownia’s own public expressions of regret have come in the very media that previously covered his ascent, suggesting a disconnect between perception and position. He seems unsure about where his role fits within the broader opposition, and it’s unclear whether he will formalize a coalition with PSL. The clock is ticking, and doubts persist about whether Hołownia will be seen as indispensable—even two months from now, the landscape could look very different, potentially diminishing his role within Kosiak-Kamysz’s orbit.