Wealthier households in the United States and across Southeast Asia view tax policy shifts as the most significant risk to their fortunes over the next five years. This perspective emerges from a UBS Group AG survey that gathered insights from families whose wealth management structures are designed to steward enormous fortunes, a finding summarized by Bloomberg reports.
The study took place from January through March 2024 and drew participation from 320 individuals. The median net worth of participating households sits at about $2.6 billion, highlighting the scale at which these opinions and strategies play out in private finance and estate planning.
According to the survey, 73 percent of respondents identified tax increases in the United States as a primary risk, while 59 percent flagged tax pressures in Southeast Asia as a critical concern. In addition, 55 percent of American households and 52 percent of Southeast Asian households named serious geopolitical tension as a central risk factor within the next five years. These figures underscore how tax policy and political stability are perceived to have outsized implications for ultra high net worth family offices and their global asset allocations.
Despite a backdrop of ongoing global strife, fewer than half of the respondents view military conflicts as the single most pressing issue. This perception holds even amid high-profile geopolitical episodes, such as conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing tensions in Europe, suggesting that tax maneuvering and fiscal policy often weigh more heavily on long-term planning than sporadic flashpoints alone.
The UBS survey was conducted amid a broader global trend where governments seek to boost tax revenues from the wealthiest segments of society. This climate of fiscal tightening and revenue optimization has implications for how family offices structure estate plans, investment vehicles, and intergenerational transfers. Wealth managers note that shifts in tax regimes can alter the cost of philanthropy, charitable giving, and legacy planning, influencing decisions about asset classes, liquidity management, and succession strategies across borders.
For ultra high net worth families, the interplay between tax policy and geopolitical risk translates into practical, day-to-day choices. These households often prioritize diversification across jurisdictions, liquidity for large transfers, and governance frameworks that can withstand policy changes without destabilizing family wealth. In addition, there is a growing emphasis on transparent reporting and compliance across multiple tax regimes to minimize exposure to penalties while preserving flexibility for strategic gifts and philanthropic initiatives.
Observers note that the United States continues to be a focal point for tax policy, given its expansive tax code and frequent changes to capital gains treatment, estate taxes, and income thresholds that affect the wealthy. In Southeast Asia, rising scrutiny of wealth as a national resource, along with evolving regional tax treaties and transfer pricing rules, adds layers of complexity for families with cross-border holdings, businesses, and real estate. The convergence of these policy dynamics with ongoing geopolitical tensions reinforces the need for sophisticated risk assessment and proactive tax planning that can adapt to shifting legal landscapes and currency considerations.
Ultimately, the sentiment captured in the UBS study reflects a broader mindset among the world’s most successful families: long horizons, disciplined stewardship, and the willingness to adjust strategies in response to policy signals and political developments. Bloomberg notes that this approach is not solely about avoiding tax burdens; it is also about ensuring continuity and control over family wealth, preserving values across generations, and maintaining the capacity to support philanthropic and societal goals despite regulatory changes.
As governments continue to explore ways to optimize public revenue from wealth, family offices and advisory teams are compelled to invest more in scenario planning, regulatory risk monitoring, and cross-border planning tools. The aim is to balance legal compliance with the preservation of family values and the ability to fund future ambitions, whether those ambitions involve entrepreneurship, real estate, or legacy philanthropy. The dialogue between policymakers and private wealth leaders is likely to intensify in the coming years as the stakes for global wealth preservation and growth remain high, with tax policy and geopolitical stability at the core of strategic considerations. The UBS findings illuminate a landscape where prudent, informed preparation matters as much as bold investment decisions, guiding families toward resilience in the face of a shifting fiscal and political environment. Citations indicate that Bloomberg has provided coverage on these developments based on UBS research and related market observations.