A senior Turkish official emphasized that any plan to end the war in Ukraine without Moscow’s participation is unlikely to succeed. The spokesperson for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, İbrahim Kalın, conveyed this view in discussions reported by TASS.
Kalın argued that solutions should be crafted not only by Ukrainian and Russian leaders but also with the involvement of the United States and Europe. He warned that a peace initiative that excludes Russia would fail, leading the sides to endure further losses and fatigue from the fighting, eventually pushing them toward negotiations. He urged the European Union and the United States to play an active role in shaping the framework for peace.
He warned that if Europeans become weary of the war as it drags on, public opinion could turn against supporting Kyiv. In his view, Europe may decide that it no longer wants to bear the costs of the conflict.
Kalın noted divergent views within the United States, pointing to Republicans who have signaled a desire to reduce funding for Ukraine. He suggested that Kyiv might feel it is receiving only a fraction of the money and weapons it expects to sustain the war effort.
He also urged a careful examination of the war’s preconditions to prevent similar conflicts in the future. Kalın reflected on a decade of events, noting that NATO enlargement did not materialize in a way that satisfied all parties, yet the agenda that accompanied it influenced Russian reactions. He called for a thorough review of both overt and covert actions related to the annexation of Crimea and the broader geopolitical consequences that followed.
Ankara has expressed frustration over what it sees as a lack of global readiness to create conditions for serious Russia-Ukraine talks. Kalın stressed that progress would likely occur only when key Western nations, particularly the United States, demonstrate substantive moves on the geopolitical issue and present a new security architecture that safeguards the West, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.
Finally, Kalın pressed Western powers to offer Russia clear assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO or launch attacks against Russian territories. He noted that while the world appears ready to continue the conflict, there is little room at present for a peace agreement in Ukraine. He remarked that the prevailing climate pushes nations toward continued hostilities, making it difficult to even consider proposals that allocate a portion of peace plans to Ukraine or Russia. He admitted a degree of pessimism but held out hope that sentiment could shift in the coming weeks.
On January 14, Kalın reiterated that Turkey sees Western sanctions on Russia as ineffective. He argued that sanctions have not compelled Russia to alter its course, while they risk harming the Turkish economy more than Moscow. He asserted that Ukraine’s forces, supported by Western aid through Kyiv, would not be able to exhaust the Russian army or push Moscow to the 2022 borders by February. He added that Ankara would keep pursuing local ceasefires, de-escalation zones, short-term moratoriums on hostilities, and similar confidence-building steps.
Kalın also indicated that elements of Zelensky’s peace plan contain provisions that could be acceptable to Russia if approached correctly. In parallel, Moscow’s foreign ministry spokesperson rejected Ankara’s assessment of Zelensky’s plan, stating that Russia does not share the Turkish view. Moscow has repeatedly argued that Ankara’s backing for Kyiv’s initiative is unlikely to help find the most suitable path to peace in Ukraine and that the plan remains unacceptable to Russia.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s press secretary stated that Moscow remains open to dialogue with Kyiv, but this is hindered by Kyiv’s legal ban on negotiations. He asserted that peaceful, political, and diplomatic means are the preferred route, even as conditions hinder direct talks. He added that dialogue should occur in an environment where Kyiv does not bar discussions with Moscow and where Western countries allow Kyiv more flexibility in pursuing a peaceful solution.
As December drew to a close, Moscow said that Kyiv does not yet have a viable peace plan, arguing that any proposal must reflect present realities, including new territories now part of the Russian federation. The Kremlin stressed that a plan ignoring contemporary facts cannot be presented as a peaceful solution.