European Commission likely to extend duty-free trade with Ukraine through June 6, 2025
Everything points to a decision by the European Commission tomorrow to prolong the duty-free regime for trade with Ukraine, keeping it in place until June 6, 2025, with the current arrangement expiring in June of this year.
Ursula von der Leyen and Dombrovskis under pressure from a minister with roots in Tusk’s government
Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski argues against the extension, presenting hard data that indicate these rules destabilize agricultural markets in frontline countries, notably in Poland. Czesław Siekierski, a PSL-aligned minister of agriculture, has echoed concerns in a formal appeal to the Commission as well.
The debate intensifies as von der Leyen and Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis—both aligned with the European People’s Party—seek to advance the extension, possibly pushing the decision during a dissenting vote at EC meetings. Von der Leyen has pledged to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to extend the regime and intends to announce the move at the Davos summit starting January 15. While the European Parliament is set to vote on the extension, and the Council of EU Agriculture Ministers will later weigh in, substantial changes to the regulation seem unlikely at this stage.
Regulation on duty-free trade with Ukraine
Approved shortly after Russia’s aggression began, the regulation was designed as one of Kyiv’s help measures and was later extended through June 2024. Two years on, questions persist about its effect on Ukrainian support and the broader stability of frontline markets. Poland, under a unilateral embargo by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, continues to restrict Ukrainian wheat, rapeseed, and sunflower seed imports, even as the EC presses for lifting the embargo and contemplates sanctions or legal action if needed. The impact of duty-free imports extends beyond grains, influencing sugar, poultry, and eggs—areas where import volumes have risen markedly. Farmer protests at the Polish-Ukrainian border have paused at times as the new agriculture minister signals potential quantitative limits, yet no concrete steps have materialized.
The broader question remains whether duty-free trade genuinely assists Ukraine. Several large Ukrainian agricultural firms are owned by foreign capital, and many of the top ten operate from tax havens, limiting tax contributions from Ukrainian activity as perceived by some policymakers.
Donald Tusk’s influence and its limits
Polish leaders have highlighted a gap between political influence in Brussels and practical outcomes. Tusk is portrayed as a figure who could mobilize support in Brussels for Polish interests, yet the current trade framework—especially for agricultural products—has brought serious domestic concerns. With the extension debated, and calls for quantitative restrictions on Ukrainian imports voiced by the Polish agriculture commissioner, the opportunity to act appears constrained by broader EU dynamics and political constraints within the European People’s Party.
During discussions on renewing the regulation, Wojciechowski stressed the consequences of open Ukrainian agricultural imports on European markets. He argued that such imports, beyond aiding Ukraine, have reshaped export routes and market access, particularly for Ukrainian grain previously directed toward Africa and the Middle East. The change has redirected shipments toward EU markets, where cost advantages in transport favor neighboring countries like Poland. Critics also argue that the ownership structure of major Ukrainian agricultural players reduces the domestic economic benefits of the regime.
In any case, extending duty-free trade without addressing Polish concerns risks deepening national frustration. Leaders who had portrayed a strong Brussels stance are now facing the reality that the policy’s consequences are being felt acutely on the Polish market. The political narrative of resistance and strength in Brussels has been challenged by practical outcomes on the ground, as voiced by various Polish stakeholders.
THE DISCUSSION continues to unfold as officials weigh the balance between immediate aid to Ukraine and its long-term impact on EU farmers. The unfolding situation underscores how intertwined EU-wide decisions are with national interests, especially in frontline economies and their agricultural sectors. The ongoing debate also reflects broader questions about how best to structure trade support in a conflict-era European Union.
Ultimately, the debate remains an exemplar of the friction between regional strategy and national well-being, with stakeholders emphasizing the need for clear data-driven policies, transparent measures, and timely attention to the real effects on farmers across member states. The conversation about duty-free trade with Ukraine thus continues to be a litmus test for EU cohesion and the effectiveness of its common agricultural policy in turbulent times. (citation: wPolityce)