Budgetary Outlook for the Generalitat as 2024 Approaches
Even with looming economic pressure, the Generalitat aims to keep social spending close to 2023 levels. The changes hinge on expected, though not guaranteed, increases in financing resources by roughly 16 percent, which would provide room to manage higher debt costs. The administration led by Carlos Mazón has reduced investments in the public sector as part of this strategy.
Specifically, the Generalitat plans to allocate 18 billion 186 million euros across three key social areas: 8 billion 504 million to Health, a historic high; 6 billion 871 million to Education; and 2 billion 811 million to Equality. If distributed evenly among the 5.2 million residents of the Valencian Community, social expenditure per capita would reach about 3,450 euros next year.
This per-capita figure is noticeably higher than the projected investments in similar regions among other autonomous communities, such as Madrid and Andalusia. Those regions spend less on social services, even though they devote more to essential costs like debt payments in some cases.
Other Budgetary Scenarios
Isabel Díaz Ayuso’s administration plans to spend 19 billion 174 million euros on Health, Education, and Equality, while Juanma Moreno Bonilla’s government estimates total social spending could rise to around 26,000 million. Both leaders point to higher social outlays, though there are additional items—culture in Andalusia and transport in Madrid—that influence the final totals.
When focusing on the three main areas, Ayuso’s plan equates to roughly 2,840 euros per person, while Moreno Bonilla’s projection comes in at about 3,076 euros. This places their per-capita figures about 600 to 400 euros lower than the Generalitat’s projections.
To reach the higher per-capita level in social sectors, the Consell must sustain stronger efforts than Madrid and Andalusia. In the Valencian Community, eight out of every ten euros of real expenditure are channeled toward Health, Education, and Equality. This sits a notch above the national capital and roughly 15 percent higher than what is seen in the Junta budgets.
The core reason behind this emphasis lies in the heavy financial costs associated with debt service. The Consell budgets carry substantial liabilities, allocating a significant slice to maturities and interest payments. By comparison, Madrid and Andalusia allocate a smaller portion to debt service relative to their total outlays.
Investment patterns also reveal asymmetries. Madrid relies more on state-funded investments, while Andalusia aligns investments with debt costs. The Valencian Community, by contrast, spends a large share on liabilities, with relatively less remaining for new investments.
Forecasted Deficit and Brussels Interactions
Budget documents indicate a deficit of 0.3 percent of GDP for next year, even as the central plan sent to Brussels for 2024 shows 0.1 percent for the year reference. A balance requirement was anticipated for the coming year, but the central government appears to have given regions more leeway, keeping the national plan at 0.1 percent while allowing the state to absorb a tenth of the gap.
Formal approval hinges on the General State Budget, which may extend the year. The current legal framework leaves the autonomies at a 0.3 percent deficit rate. Analysts have encouraged the government to align these reference rates with regional targets absent firm guidelines.
The Consell has repeatedly requested information and has stated that responses were not forthcoming, prompting continued use of this accounting approach. Other regions, including Murcia and Catalonia, have followed similar maneuvers. This approach enables the Generalitat to increase its budget by approximately 290 million euros.
These financial maneuvers sit alongside other adjustments. The plan avoids a full 1.3 billion euro claim related to insufficient financing previously raised by Botànic, yet it includes several revenue items whose realization is not guaranteed. Notable line items include 926 million euros for money owed by the state to healthcare providers serving displaced individuals and 463 million euros claimed as compensation for VAT and electricity rebates, which, according to the Consell, reduced regional income. In total, these three items amount to about 1,667.5 million that had not been anticipated by the administration.
Upcoming Budget Disclosures
First Vice President and Minister of Culture and Sports Vicente Barrera will lead the session when Valencian ministers present their 2024 budgets. The two-day proceedings will continue into Wednesday. The Budget Bill advances through parliament after Consell approval and is slated for final consideration on December 21. The schedule includes a round of announcements by ministers responsible for Equality, Justice, Health, Education, Agriculture, and other departments, with further actions planned across Environment, Innovation, Tourism, and the Treasury. In short, the process lays out who will reveal their numbers on which day as the month progresses.