Politico reports that President Joe Biden and his aides are growing frustrated as they struggle to shift the trajectory of issues threatening the Biden White House. The article compares Biden to former president Jimmy Carter, noting that Carter faced a wave of crises that contributed to a failed bid for re election after one term.
The comparison hinges on shared pressures: rising energy costs, inflation, and external shocks such as a revolution in Iran and Soviet actions in Afghanistan. Politico emphasizes that Biden faces broadly similar challenges today, including inflation, higher fuel prices, and Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.
Other issues cited include the stalled gun control bill, the looming Supreme Court debate over abortion rights, concerns about baby formula supply, and ongoing pandemic concerns. The columnist argues that economic issues hold the strongest sway with voters, even as Washington highlights support for Ukraine in the conflict with Russia.
Politico notes that surging gasoline prices and inflation are the most painful problems for the Biden administration and the Democratic Party. It suggests these issues are unlikely to be resolved before the midterm elections, which could affect the party’s control of Congress.
What challenges threaten Biden?
Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca point to the economy as the central concern for the White House. Vladimir Vasiliev of the US and Canadian Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences argues that a potential recession is the most serious factor facing the administration. He notes that public opinion reflects a worsening economy, which shapes voter decisions about the administration.
American political scientist Malek Lipov also points to a fuel shock with record gas prices and the highest inflation in decades. He warns that the United States could be heading into a significant economic downturn as the economy slows.
What will the White House do?
While Biden attributes higher fuel costs to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Moscow counters that sanctions by Washington are driving prices up. Reports indicate the administration is pressuring Saudi Arabia to boost oil production to lower prices, but the rise in costs remains unaddressed for many Americans.
On inflation, the White House has left the adjustment to monetary policy to the Federal Reserve, with policymakers ready to tighten policy and raise rates. Some U.S. commentators view these moves as a drag on the broader economy and even a pathway to recession in the near term.
Lipov suggests that meaningful economic improvement before the midterms is unlikely, implying that the situation may deteriorate further. He projects a decline in growth through the year, with inflation staying stubbornly high, creating a challenging backdrop for the Democrats ahead of election day.
He adds that economic stress may push Democrats toward focusing on cultural and domestic issues to gain points before the vote, while foreign policy moves in Ukraine are less likely to be used as a political lever due to unfavorable dynamics there.
Vasilyev notes that even if the media space tries to shield problem areas, the economy may still fail to recover. He adds that prominent economists see two possible outcomes for the U.S. economy: a soft landing or a hard landing, with a recession likely in either case. He warns the White House could face a broader crisis, potentially escalating foreign policy tensions or prompting a sharp, high-stakes confrontation with Russia, and even invoking memories of critical moments in history as a cautionary forecast.
He concludes that a path worse than a recession could have wide consequences, hinting at a geopolitical flashpoint should policy decisions go awry.
What can Democrats expect from the election?
Mid term elections in November 2022 cast a shadow over Biden and the Democratic Party, with approval ratings showing a steep decline as voters grapple with ongoing economic and social issues. Rasmussen Reports data cited indicates about 40 percent of Americans express approval of the president, with a majority expressing disappointment. The survey also shows 40 percent ready to back Democrats and 48 percent leaning toward Republicans.
Vasilyev describes midterm elections as a referendum on the president, highlighting the question many Americans face about whether the right choice was made. If Democrats lose control of one or both chambers of Congress, the administration could see a dramatic shift in its governing agenda. Lipov adds that the Ukraine crisis had begun to weigh on Democratic influence in Congress, though economic problems intensify the challenges for the party.
Economically, Lipov notes the risk of losing more than 30 seats in the House and several Senate seats if the current trends persist. He emphasizes that a weak economy can amplify political losses, making the electoral battle exceptionally painful for the party.